Game 14, 2023-24: at Dayton (1/7)

[mdogt12]

https://x.com/mattsarz/status/1740456586219569300?s=46
Game selected for ESPN 2 January 7 1pm

[MakeMullinsGreatAgain]

ESPN Matchup Predictor totally disrespecting UMass - only a 15% chance of winning! Thats UMass/Siena like. Geez

[Juice Stand]

In fairness, Dayton is really really good. Their last loss was before Thanksgiving to the current #3 team in the country, Houston, and the game will be in Dayton, a very difficult place to get a road win. I give us a 60% chance of keeping it close, 15% chance of getting our doors blown off, and 25% chance of eeking out a win.

[InnervisionsUMASS]

We've proven nothing yet. This is that chance.

[inthescoop]

In before stevemaz says, "This is the biggest game of the Frank Martin era".

[MakeMullinsGreatAgain]

In fairness, Dayton is really really good. Their last loss was before Thanksgiving to the current #3 team in the country, Houston, and the game will be in Dayton, a very difficult place to get a road win. I give us a 60% chance of keeping it close, 15% chance of getting our doors blown off, and 25% chance of eeking out a win.

but these predictors are computer simulations done thousands of times -so if we play them 1000 times we'd be 150-850? my guess if we played them 1000 times we'd be more like 400-600 - or if you want to say 100 times - we'd be closer to 30-70 - not 15-85

If this was simulated once - I'd say we have closer to 10% chance of winning - but this was simulated hundreds of times - thats why I'm a little surprised its only 15%

[Floyd]

Odds on % of fans in sweater vests?

[InnervisionsUMASS]

Odds on % of fans in sweater vests?

38.5%

[SignMan]

Odds of fans @ UD Arena carrying a beer in each hand back to their seats: 99.9%.

[eldonabe]

Odds on % of fans in sweater vests?

I am not expecting a win. What I want to see is for them to keep their composure.

Last year's team (and pretty much all of McCall's teams) would just turtle and and lose any sense of discipline they may have had.

They need to run their sets and try to execute every time; and stay away from playing desperation style catch-up basketball where they look like they are trying to score 5 points every position.

If they do that tomorrow, win/or lose, that will be a huge step in the right direction IMO.

[deke]

Odds on % of fans in sweater vests?

I am not expecting a win. What I want to see is for them to keep their composure.

Last year's team (and pretty much all of McCall's teams) would just turtle and and lose any sense of discipline they may have had.

They need to run their sets and try to execute every time; and stay away from playing desperation style catch-up basketball where they look like they are trying to score 5 points every position.

If they do that tomorrow, win/or lose, that will be a huge step in the right direction IMO.

Agreed. I'm not a big "moral victory" guy but I do think there's something to it when rebuilding with a young team. I want to see them compete hard for the full 40 minutes and show that they belong in the discussion - win or lose. If they do that I think it can springboard them to greater things this year. If they can't it plants some seeds of doubt in the guys' minds that they're good but not THAT good. Of course, Cross needs to be healthy and ready to go, and Cohen needs to be better than he was Wednesday and I think he will be.

[MikeUMA]

Dayton got a 13-point win at Davidson to start their conference slate
https://daytonflyers.com/news/2024/1/3/ ... idson.aspx

[69MG]

Dayton basically plays 7 guys. 6 of them are very good and the seventh is not bad. They shoot 41% from 3 as a team and they take almost 24 per game, making 10.

[Worcester_To_Amherst]

Will be curious to see Frank's game plan on D. Not sure anyone on the team can match up with Holmes 1 on 1, maybe Cross or DHS could slow him down. Since they shoot it good from 3, it'll be tough to guard the line and limit Holmes. I'd lean towards taking away the 3 ball and see if Holmes can dominate the game if he's getting guarded 1 on 1.

[Floyd]

Dayton basically plays 7 guys. 6 of them are very good and the seventh is not bad. They shoot 41% from 3 as a team and they take almost 24 per game, making 10.

While I agree with eldon and deke's posts above, this statement is why I think we could steal this game. I say could, if we play to our potential. We have a pretty solid 9-10 deep rotation and if we play really intense, tough, in ur face D, we could potentially wear them down a bit and force some mistakes to capitalize on. Fuck it, new year, new UMass. Minutemen win by 3 in last minute.