Game 15, 2024-25: Richmond (1/4/25)

[69MG]

We have a game on Saturday at noon. I think we have a chance to take this one. Richmond doesn't scare me as much as St. Joes did. We match up better against them. That's all I'm going to say.

[eldonabe]

We have a game on Saturday at noon. I think we have a chance to take this one. Richmond doesn't scare me as much as St. Joes did. We match up better against them. That's all I'm going to say.

There are no "Should Win" games any more this year. That said, this is one of the few conference games that we have a better than average chance to get a W.

Lose this one, and oy-vey.... only 3 conference wins is in the cards.

[minutefanjsf]

The ESPN predictor has us at almost the same percent to win as it had St. Joe’s to beat us. We could be 8-9 point favorites.

[umasscollective]

The ESPN predictor has us at almost the same percent to win as it had St. Joe’s to beat us. We could be 8-9 point favorites.

Looking forward to the first home game of A10 play. Nothing planned pre or post game, but we will have a pregame at Amherst Public House for the Dayton game.

[MakeMullinsGreatAgain]

The ESPN predictor has us at almost the same percent to win as it had St. Joe’s to beat us. We could be 8-9 point favorites.

was going to comment on this - is it me or does it seem like this never works out for UMass? What I mean is when it shows us as having a 24% chance of winning we never win - on the other hand, it's literally 50/50 (and that may be generous) that we actually win when we're that big a favorite. I don't think we can go back and look but I am pretty sure we were 75% chance of beating Hofstra, CCSU and UMass Lowell - I believe it was the same with Northeastern and we were tied under 4 minutes before pulling that one off.

[bobolink]

The ESPN predictor has us at almost the same percent to win as it had St. Joe’s to beat us. We could be 8-9 point favorites.

was going to comment on this - is it me or does it seem like this never works out for UMass? What I mean is when it shows us as having a 24% chance of winning we never win - on the other hand, it's literally 50/50 (and that may be generous) that we actually win when we're that big a favorite. I don't think we can go back and look but I am pretty sure we were 75% chance of beating Hofstra, CCSU and UMass Lowell - I believe it was the same with Northeastern and we were tied under 4 minutes before pulling that one off.

won't say never works out, just not this season and especially in those games, when we (like ESPN's predictor) expected better. That's why we're so disappointed.
I can think of a few reasons why Richmond will win tomorrow: they're older and more experienced, and their bigs outweigh UMass's by a lot. OTOH, they've been lousy on the road and their very small guards have been getting posted up. Same old story, though: gotta hit some outside shots to make that possible. They come in off a nice win over GW, and UMass needs to bounce back after another disappointing end of game vs St. Joe's.

[Juice Stand]

...they're older and more experienced...

Not picking on you Bobolink, but how long can we continue to say that UMass is younger and less experienced than their opponents? It feels like every year we have a "young" team.

Rahsool: Senior
Rivera: Senior
Malek: Senior
DHS: Junior

We add a bunch of sophomores but really only 1 freshman, Nate. We're old enough, we're experienced enough. Richmond is having a bad season so far: sub .500 record, 272 NET, 239 KenPom. This is a home game against a not very good team. Make some shots, grab some rebounds, and win a game.

[69MG]

won't say never works out, just not this season and especially in those games, when we (like ESPN's predictor) expected better. That's why we're so disappointed.
I can think of a few reasons why Richmond will win tomorrow: they're older and more experienced, and their bigs outweigh UMass's by a lot. OTOH, they've been lousy on the road and their very small guards have been getting posted up. Same old story, though: gotta hit some outside shots to make that possible. They come in off a nice win over GW, and UMass needs to bounce back after another disappointing end of game vs St. Joe's.

When I saw that they beat an 11-2 GW team it got my attention. But look at GW's OOC schedule, it's even weaker than ours and the game was at Richmond. I'm not saying this will be easy, but we certainly have a shot.
https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... le/_/id/45

As for their size, we've seen Beagle before when he played for Albany. He's listed at 6'10, 240, but he doesn't play that big, only taking down 5 boards a game and he doesn't block shots. They started Walz (6'11, 255) instead of Beagle the last 2 games, maybe to get a more physical player in there. He doesn't shoot much, but he did pull down 15 boards against GW. That's the only bulk they have so they aren't as imposing as SJU's bigs.

For us, it's the usual. Make some shots, get rebounds and second chance points, keep turnovers down and somebody please guard Hunt (17.6 points a game). He's a slasher and shoots about 8 free throws a game at 83%.

Oh, one other thing. As a team, they are 29% from three. I hope this isn't one of those days where the opponent gets out of character and shoots 40% against us.

[MikeUMA]

By NET ratings, this is a matchup of the two worst teams in the A-15
UMass 248
Richmond 272

Richmond has only played one game above Quad 3 (a 44 point thrashing they took at Auburn), whereas we're 0-1 against Q1 (at West Virginia), and 0-3 in Q2 (vs FSU, vs ASU, at SJU).

UR's 6-8 record even includes two non-D-I games, so in D-I they have just 4 wins
home vs Maine
neutral vs Ball State
home vs VMI
home vs GW
No true away game wins

UR's best win by NET was on Tuesday, a 66-61 home win over GW (151).
Our best NET win was the Northeastern (167) game.

UR's offense in 14th in the A-15 in scoring average, at 71.2 ppg, and 12th in defense at 73.6 ppg allowed. Comparatively, we're 12th (74.2) and 14th (75.2).
By margin, we're the only 2 teams in the league that are in the negative, us at -1.0 and them at -2.4.

Mason's Convention. We're the two worst teams in the league in...
Total FG%: UM .418, UR .414
3pt FG%: UR .290, UM .262
Richmond launches about 6 more 3s per game than we do.
Jason Roche is their primary 3pt threat, at .397 per game. Rest of their team pretty much stinks at the 3.

FT shooting is where this could be a factor. UR is best in the league, at .769, while we're next to last at .637. Gotta play smart D and not send 'em to the line.

Rebounding kind of cancels each other out.
We're bad on the defensive glass (14th in DRPG), and UR is bad on the offensive glass (15th).
We're 1st on ORPG (but that's due to a lot of missed bunnies and OR opportunities). UR is better on the defensive glass at 4th.
By margin, we're both in the bottom 2: UM +0.7, UR -2.1

As 69MG mentioned, Hunt is their primary scorer, 7th in the league with 17.6 ppg. No other Spider ranks among the league's top 25, and for UM only Diggins (13.4 ppg, 24th) hits that list.

Matchup: https://bracketologists.com/matchup/NDAxNzI0MzUy
UR's game notes: https://richmondspiders.com/documents/2 ... _UMass.pdf
UM's notes not out yet.

Noon start
NESN and ESPN+ have the video
Get to Mullins if you can. Every remaining home game opponent has a better NET than our Northeastern win, so tomorrow might be our best chance for a home W.

As eldon said, this is one we should win, and arguably call it a "need to" win for a confidence builder.

[bobolink]

...they're older and more experienced...

Not picking on you Bobolink, but how long can we continue to say that UMass is younger and less experienced than their opponents? It feels like every year we have a "young" team.

Rahsool: Senior
Rivera: Senior
Malek: Senior
DHS: Junior

We add a bunch of sophomores but really only 1 freshman, Nate. We're old enough, we're experienced enough. Richmond is having a bad season so far: sub .500 record, 272 NET, 239 KenPom. This is a home game against a not very good team. Make some shots, grab some rebounds, and win a game.

I don't feel picked on because the experience thing can sound like an excuse, and we're well past time for excuses. You can say old enough, but they seem to me to be more experienced. Yes, we have some seniors, but not like theirs. Their top 2 are grad students (Neskovic and Hunt). Hunt is playing is his 111th D1 game (I'll be glad to be done with those extra covid years). UMass has Rahsool, who hardly played at all as a Freshman, and not big minutes as a Soph either. Malek is a Senior, but has only played 32 D1 games and only started in 10 (all at UMass). Before UMass, Daniel played a full year at Bryant, but I think was JUCO before that (?). If DHS starts, it will be his 13th start. Just a thought on why them or us get favored.

[MikeUMA]

Before UMass, Daniel played a full year at Bryant, but I think was JUCO before that (?).

Pretty much. He had a stop at SLU in between, but he didn't play due to injury.
https://umasshoops.com/wiki/doku.php?id=daniel_rivera

[Juice Stand]

Just as those Covid years start to expire, the NCAA is talking about not counting JUCO years towards eligibility, so someone like Shahid or Rivera that went to JUCO would get extra playing time, and on top of that, there is talk about giving everybody 5 years instead of 4. So you could potentially have someone play 2 years at JUCO and come in with 5 years of eligibility, maybe even redshirt a season and end up in school for 7 or 8 years. With the way the transfer portal is, can you imagine a guy bouncing around to 5 or 6 schools? Totally out of control.

But anyway, good perspective on the experience aspect, Bobolink. I hadn't considered actual playing time, but it doesn't change my opinion. These guys are plenty experienced and old enough to know how to compete in D1 basketball games.

[MikeUMA]

WMUA men's hoop show, with Michael Bergman who covers us for A10 Talk. About as good as an assessment you're gonna hear.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/3G7HTq ... ycLCUCHLqw

[Floyd]

Predicting a big bounce back game for Jaylen Curry against their guards, and a first time big time game for our guy Nate. I think our guys are ready to put one together in all phases and win this one by 14.
C'mon Minutemen!

[umasscollective]

...they're older and more experienced...

Not picking on you Bobolink, but how long can we continue to say that UMass is younger and less experienced than their opponents? It feels like every year we have a "young" team.

Rahsool: Senior
Rivera: Senior
Malek: Senior
DHS: Junior

We add a bunch of sophomores but really only 1 freshman, Nate. We're old enough, we're experienced enough. Richmond is having a bad season so far: sub .500 record, 272 NET, 239 KenPom. This is a home game against a not very good team. Make some shots, grab some rebounds, and win a game.

Rivera is a junior eligibility wise. He will continue to get better and has shown great strides recently.