minutefanjsf wrote:
Many publications have our schedule as one of the more difficult based on the number of teams that went bowling in our schedule this year. Tennessee is tougher than Florida, Temple tougher than South Carolina, USF and Troy a wash. Coastal Carolina on the road is tougher than Tulane at home. Maine tougher than Wagner. Ohio tougher than FIU. App state and La Tech close call, but probably give that to La Tech. Georgia southern tougher than BC. Hawaii and ODU at home should be easier than on the road. BYU same in the road. Mississippi state will be much tougher on the road. So, three easier games this year, eight tougher one the same.
There is absolutely no way Georgia Southern this year will be tougher than BC was last year.
Also, I think Temple takes a step back with Rhule gone to Baylor and Walker graduated. Still will be decent, but South Carolina was a pretty solid team once they made the switch to Bentley at QB (of course, against UMass). Conversely, South Florida will be one of the toughest teams UMass plays, aside from probably Tennessee and BYU.
A big wild card will be Coastal Carolina. They have been a pretty good FCS program, but they will be playing their first game in FBS (and UMass will have a game under its belt). Both Athlon and Phil Steele have the Chanticleers rated bottom 10 entering the season (the difference being, where each has UMass rated).
Here are the
ESPN FPI and
S&P+ projections for each game. I like that UMass has a reasonable chance in half its games. No margin for error, obviously, without a significant upset, but 5-of-6 home games should be winnable ... App State will be the toughest; Coastal Carolina should be considered the only "winnable" road game.
I wrote this ... it's gotta be true.