Polls/Bracketology

Maximis · Post by **Maximis** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:38 pm

Thank you for the welcomes. I do make it a few games every year regardless of how the team is doing. I actually play a lot of darts and pool out of the Rumbleseat...wish I could have made it there tonite!!!

Old Cage · Post by **Old Cage** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:44 pm

^ Excellent screen name.

From a typical UMass practice: "Max, get off the floor!"

ShotPutNC · Post by **ShotPutNC** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:53 pm

The fact that people put more stock in the AP Poll than the Coaches Poll is beyond me. The AP Poll has the same issues with it as the BBWAA controlling the HOF vote in the MLB. Most have their own definition of Top 25 and, more often than not, it can be pretty stupid. Give me a coach any day, especially when these guys are 100% more proficient at breaking down other teams and their quality than a sports writer will be.

Maximis · Post by **Maximis** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:53 pm

It's a fantasic place to watch games 11 TVs, GREAT food (10 cent wings on Monday nights and they are my favorite wings, so good). Glad to see Billy (the owner) giving UMass some love!!

ShotPutNC · Post by **ShotPutNC** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:11 pm

That would surprise me. If so, which SID has been voting for us since the beginning? Even if it is the SID, I would still prefer it over a writer.

Emilimo701 · Post by **Emilimo701** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:13 pm

Chris20 wrote:
Emilimo701 wrote:Up to #2 in the (more accurate) Sagarin RPI which is the number furthest to the right, PURE_ELO.

What makes it more accurate?

The algorithm used is a Markov Chain Monte Carlo variant.

Chris20 · Post by **Chris20** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:19 pm

Ah yes, I thought I recognized it.

UMass87 · Post by **UMass87** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:22 pm

It's not an 'RPI' - the RPI is a very simplistic formula. ELO is a system developed for chess ranking and is considerably more robust than the RPI. Sagarin's ratings are most mature when his elo rating and his rating are roughly synchronous - you don't see huge differences between the two.

It's still early in the season and no mathematical model is going to be very good yet. It's also pretty damn difficult to hand rate the teams. I guarantee that any of us filling out a top 25 would generate lots of complaints from fans of teams we left out.

Chris20 · Post by **Chris20** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:25 pm

What makes the Massey a better system early on?

Pretend you are explaining it to a 14 year old. And don't call me a stupid fuck or anything.

InnervisionsUMASS · Post by **InnervisionsUMASS** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:27 pm

Blutrane93 · Post by **Blutrane93** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:27 pm

UMass87 · Post by **UMass87** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:34 pm

Chris20 wrote:What makes the Massey a better system early on?

Pretend you are explaining it to a 14 year old. And don't call me a stupid fuck or anything.

I don't think Massey is a better rating. I think the comparison matrix http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm is by far the best rating. I think it's the best rating because it has some element of "crowd effect" see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd
It only comes out every Monday (with data from Sunday) so it's AP and coaches component are a week behind. Nevertheless, it has, today, 27 different polls and mathematical rankings. It ranks the teams based on the average rank of the teams in all the rankings.

Wiscstlatlmia · Post by **Wiscstlatlmia** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:43 pm

anyone else getting excited about the new people signing up! go umass! haha

mlaconte459 · Post by **mlaconte459** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:47 pm

Wiscstlatlmia wrote:anyone else getting excited about the new people signing up! go umass! haha

booo get these pink hats out of here!!!

I kid I kid

Chris20 · Post by **Chris20** » Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:27 pm

Oh, I see. I misunderstood and thought you have mentioned the Massey rating had some better formula for early season. Thanks for the clarification.

Pink hats....hahaha