Conference Realignment

[jjmc85]

Wow. First Richmond, now William & Mary. What’s happening there?

[stevemaz]

I think we are on a course for SEC and Big Ten to go to 24 in an effort to lock in college sports domination. The schools left in the Big 12 and ACC will have the choice of either adding new schools to their mix or merging into one conference. As far as how it will effect us, we should want the first option to happen. The rest of this decade will be interesting heading into the 30's where stability will come back.. this goes for all aspects of our lives btw.

[minutefanjsf]

I think we are on a course for SEC and Big Ten to go to 24 in an effort to lock in college sports domination. The schools left in the Big 12 and ACC will have the choice of either adding new schools to their mix or merging into one conference. As far as how it will effect us, we should want the first option to happen. The rest of this decade will be interesting heading into the 30's where stability will come back.. this goes for all aspects of our lives btw.

Yup. On track for 84-96 “big boy” schools.

[stevemaz]

I think we are on a course for SEC and Big Ten to go to 24 in an effort to lock in college sports domination. The schools left in the Big 12 and ACC will have the choice of either adding new schools to their mix or merging into one conference. As far as how it will effect us, we should want the first option to happen. The rest of this decade will be interesting heading into the 30's where stability will come back.. this goes for all aspects of our lives btw.

Yup. On track for 84-96 “big boy” schools.

UMASS will be one of them.

[harbo]

What number would you say we are at right now?

[eldonabe]

What number would you say we are at right now?

127


And that top tier will be as small as possible so there are less ways to split the money. It will settle at 3 conferences with 20-24 teams each. Umass is not cracking that top 60-72 number. Not as a Member of MAC.

[Juice Stand]

...that top tier will be as small as possible so there are less ways to split the money. It will settle at 3 conferences with 20-24 teams each. Umass is not cracking that top 60-72 number. Not as a Member of MAC.

I mostly agree with this. There has been urgency to get in to an FBS conference (task achieved), and now there is tremendous urgency to win and win consistently (task not remotely close to achieved). It's going to have to happen almost immediately. Coach Joe can't hope to methodically build over three years. It needs to be this year or next year. If football AND basketball can win consistently for the next 4-5 years, and there's a proven continued investment, maybe, just maybe, SteveMaz will be right and we'll get an invite. One or two good seasons isn't going to cut it. We need to prove that we are the cream of the crop in the MAC in both sports. That's a tall task on a short timeframe, in my opinion.

[DEM]

^
I would tweak that a bit. My take is that the success of basketball, as much as we hope it happens, has minimal relevance as it relates to this discussion. When it comes to conference moves, it's really almost totally about the success of football.

Just a few examples I see:
-NIU is going to be moving from the MAC to the Mountain West. Their basketball program, from what I know, has been a bottom dweller in the MAC. The opportunity to move conferences presented itself almost entirely due to the strength of their football program.
-Boise State moving to the PAC, I don't know much about the circumstances, but I can only imagine they were invited for the same reason, as I don't see anything to write home about with regard to their basketball program.
-Rutgers moved to the Big Ten about a decade ago. Again, solid football program, minimal accomplishments in basketball.

Meanwhile, UConn has had some amazing success in basketball right up until recent years, and last I heard they are still struggling to find a conference for the long term. The way I see it, as far as this discussion goes, success in college basketball isn't much different than success in college hockey. Awesome to have, but neither necessary nor sufficient for making conference moves that a program might want to make.

For better or worse, the state of college athletics is such that football is going to be the main determinant in whatever happens. So, to the extent that any opportunities might present themselves in the future, it will almost entirely depend on the success of the football program.

[eldonabe]

^
I would tweak that a bit. My take is that the success of basketball, as much as we hope it happens, has minimal relevance as it relates to this discussion. When it comes to conference moves, it's really almost totally about the success of football.

Just a few examples I see:
-NIU is going to be moving from the MAC to the Mountain West. Their basketball program, from what I know, has been a bottom dweller in the MAC. The opportunity to move conferences presented itself almost entirely due to the strength of their football program.
-Boise State moving to the PAC, I don't know much about the circumstances, but I can only imagine they were invited for the same reason, as I don't see anything to write home about with regard to their basketball program.
-Rutgers moved to the Big Ten about a decade ago. Again, solid football program, minimal accomplishments in basketball.

Meanwhile, UConn has had some amazing success in basketball right up until recent years, and last I heard they are still struggling to find a conference for the long term. The way I see it, as far as this discussion goes, success in college basketball isn't much different than success in college hockey. Awesome to have, but neither necessary nor sufficient for making conference moves that a program might want to make.

For better or worse, the state of college athletics is such that football is going to be the main determinant in whatever happens. So, to the extent that any opportunities might present themselves in the future, it will almost entirely depend on the success of the football program.

What he said.

[Juice Stand]

Yeah, that's absolutely fair. Football drives the bus. I'm just saying that for a program as mediocre to bad as UMass has been in both revenue sports, winning at football in the MAC might not be quite enough. Showing that you can win consistently with both might be needed to get an invite into that next level group. It starts with football though, absolutely.

[e_parade]

It's certainly all about football...but also markets (the real reason Rutgers got in the B1G...they have an alltime losing record, a single claimed national championship (in 1869) and a single conference championship to their name). At this point we're mostly beyond that, outside of conferences like the ACC, which gets money based on having teams in certain markets, allowing for the ACC network to be in TV deals there. That's why Stanford and Cal were better options than UConn - more people in their area than in UConn, and therefore more money.

I think Fresno would probably be the best example for the PAC in terms of of "basketball doesn't really impact it" instead of Boise though. Boise has made 3 of the past 4 tournaments and 5 since 2010, whereas Fresno has made one tournament in the past 20 years.

[Steve81]

With several schools leaving the CAA and joining the Patriot league, the're discussion on csnbbs and AnyGivenSaturday of America East starting football and give URI and others a FB only invite. https://www.anygivensaturday.com/showth ... CAA-do-now

[Steve81]

There is speculation that should play out soon regarding Texas State to the PAC and either LA Tech of WKU to the Sun Belt. Will be interesting if WKU is passed over or not to the Sun Belt. Here is one of those posts.

If the scenario of Texas State leaving presented itself during the last realignment cycle, WKU would have been added to the Sun Belt. LA Tech wouldn’t have received much (serious) consideration at all. But that was then and things are different today. Not only have the Bulldogs changed their tune towards the Sun Belt, something else has happened that makes them a viable candidate: NIL. Now that paying players is here and expanded rosters is coming, the western schools will be looking to save as much money that they can, and it’s collectively a lot cheaper to travel to Ruston than it is to travel to Bowling Green. Ruston is a shorter trip than Bowling Green for every west team except for Troy. On average it’s 492.7 miles to Bowling Green for SBC West members and 253.2 to Ruston.

[stevemaz]

I expect Div 1 to shrink in football to around 80 and then maybe 120 or less in all other sports. I expect Big Ten and SEC to expand soon and go to a pod system for scheduling

Big Ten go's nuts and adds 6 (Cal, Stanford, BC, Virginia, NC, Duke or Ga Tech or maybe even Fla state/Miami) 24
SEC follows and adds (Fla St, Clemson, Miami, Houston) 20
Big 12 goes to 20 from 15 (Louisville, SMU, Va tech, Ga Tech, NC State) 20
ACC/Big East/ merger ACC teams left are Cuse, Pitt, WF, ND somehow. They add UMass, USF, Temple to get to 8 full time fball members
Pac 10/12 adds a few stragglers like UNLV, UTSA, New Mexico, Memphis

[Steve81]

Things will get real interesting in 6 years. Will the Sun Belt take in schools near Marshall and JMU. Of course, JMU could be moving to the AAC by then or maybe UMass as well. It's just good business for schools to survey and converse with other conferences. Develop the relationship now and not be caught flat footed.

Sources said the talks with Ohio were preliminary with both sides simply gauging interest, but Ohio had begun at least entertaining the possibility of leaving its longtime home in the MAC for a few reasons:

— The number of mid-week football games in the MAC has resulted in decreased fan interest and ticket revenue.

— Once considered one of the most stable and geographically compact FBS conferences, the MAC recently lost Northern Illinois to the Mountain West for football and the Horizon League for other sports. The additions of Buffalo and UMass have increased travel costs in a conference that was once made up entirely of teams from the Midwest.

— These initial talks may be more about establishing relationships for the future than a current move considering the potential for a massive realignment across college sports before 2031.

While the state of Ohio is not currently in the Sun Belt’s geographic footprint, the Bobcats’ campus is roughly 80 miles from current Sun Belt member Marshall, and about a five-hour drive from both James Madison and Appalachian State.

Source: https://www.dnronline.com/sports/colleg ... 212ba.html