vanmeter wrote: Sat Feb 28, 2026 5:17 pm
We win 1 game and one of them lose a game and we would be in. If both teams Central Michigan and Buffalo win 2 we are out.
Scenario 1
We win vs Ohio and Central Michigan loses 1 game we win tie breaker having beaten them
Scenario 2
We win Ohio and Buffalo loses 1 game (assuming the loss is Akron) we would have same record but given the tie breaker we both lose 2 to Miami Ohio and we lose 1 game to Akron but Buffalo loses 2 to Akron. If Buffalo beats Akron and then loses the next game we are out based on their 1-1 record vs Akron
Scenario 3
We win Ohio and both Central and Buffalo split. There would be a 3 way tie and we would have a 2-1 record vs Central and Buffalo , and Central would be 1-1 vs both and Buffalo 1-2 vs both. I would 'assume' this would give us the tie breaker
Scenario 4
We all lose out we probably get in based on the scenario 3 as we would have that tie breaker. However Northern Illinois now has 5 wins and if they split last 2 they would have 6 wins and did beat us. In addition Western Michigan Ball State and Eastern Michigan have a shot if we do not get 7th win.
Very confusing and up in the air, but suffice to say, We need to win on Tuesday.
I would think it becomes much clearer after Tuesday's games.
In your scenarios, I think...
#1 checks out
#2 is messed because Buffalo plays Toledo on 3/6, not Akron.
#3 checks out
#4 makes my brain hurt
Updating the stuff I've been doing...
6. Bowling Green, 8-9
Remaining:
3/3 bye
3/6 at EMU (4-12), likely win, won at home on 1/17
Projected finish: 9-9
7. Central Michigan, 6-10
CMU holds the tiebreaker over Buffalo by virtue of their 1-0 head-to-head edge
Remaining:
3/3 Akron (15-1), likely loss, lost at Akron on 1/6
3/6 at Ball State (5-11), likely loss, won by 1 at Ball on 1/20
Projected finish 6-12
8. Buffalo, 6-10
Remaining:
3/3 EMU (4-12), likely win, first meeting
3/6 at Toledo (10-6), likely loss, first meeting
Projected finish: 7-11
9. UMass, 6-11
Remaining:
3/3 Ohio (9-7). I was thinking in prior posts that this would be a win, now I'm calling this a loss. I don't see anyone's heart being in this.
3/6 bye
Projected finish 6-12
10. Ball State, 5-11
Remaining:
3/3 at WMU (4-12), likely loss (road), first meeting
3/6 CMU (6-10), likely win, won at CMU on 1/20
Projected finish 6-12
If UM and Ball come down to tie-breakers, it's maybe moot unless CMU and Buffalo both go winless and UM and Ball both win out. If so, the first breaker is still a tie with the 1-1 series split. After that:
Both are winless against #1 Miami, #2 Akron, #3 Kent State, but UMass beat #4 Toledo while Ball lost to Toledo, so UM would get the edge in that scenario.
t-11. WMU, 4-12
Remaining:
3/3 Ball State (5-11), likely win (push, but home), first meeting
3/6 at Kent State (12-4), likely loss, first meeting
Projected finish 5-13
t-11. EMU, 4-12
Remaining:
3/3 at Buffalo (6-10), likely loss
3/6 Bowling Green (8-9), likely loss
Projected finish 4-14
t-11. NIU, 4-12
Remaining:
3/3 Kent State (12-4), likely loss, lost at Kent on 1/3
3/6 at Akron (15-1), likely loss, first meeting
Projected finish 4-14
A lot left to sort out. As vanmeter said, after Tuesday a lot will clear up.
