2023-24 Season

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LS71
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by LS71 » Sat Mar 02, 2024 9:04 pm

+ 1

What a way to finish your last regular season at UMass! 8)

Last I looked, Maine and Vermont were tied at the end of 2.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by 69MG » Sun Mar 03, 2024 1:16 am

Maine won 3-2 in regulation. We are tied with Providence for 4th and 2 points behind Maine. Providence has BU and Northeastern, both at home. We are tied for 11th in Pairwise so I think we may have to take 1 game in Maine to stay there.

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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by Old Cage » Sun Mar 03, 2024 8:37 am

"Jack didn’t have any envy in him," Calipari said. "He was the greatest coach to ever coach here."

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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by jjmc85 » Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:29 pm

Looking at the standings on CHN I’m pretty sure UMass has clinched a first round bye.

UMass and PC each have 36 and are tied for 4th with two games left to play. UNH is on sixth behind them with 30 points and two games to play and potentially make it a 3 team tie for 4th. No one behind UNH can catch UMass

UMass has the tie breakers I think over both PC and UNH based on H2H (2-0 vs PC with one win being in OT so 5/6 points, 1-1 vs UNH with the win in regulation and loss in OT so 4/6 points). I assume UMass would win the 3 way tie too. Worst case scenario I’d think is PC gets 6points, UMass gets 0, UNH gets 6. UMass I believe would win the tiebreaker for fifth over UNH. If PC got 0 in that scenario I assume UMass would also win that 3 team tie breaker and finish in fourth.

Note the qualifiers like “think/believe/pretty sure.” Hockey East has in the past changed tie breakers with a week or two left in the regular season (don’t get me started on 2010 and what almost happened then before Justin Braun single-handedly demolished Maine and made that tie breaker change moot) and they don’t really do a good job clarifying whether for tie breakers an OT win is equal to a regulation win for H2H. So it’s quite possible and probably even likely the conference leadership will do whatever they want to break a tie that particular day and UMass might not have it clinched yet. But I think maybe they have and if so that’s good news.
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InnervisionsUMASS
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:34 pm

jjmc85 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:29 pm Looking at the standings on CHN I’m pretty sure UMass has clinched a first round bye.

UMass is pretty sure they clinched a first round bye too :wink:

https://x.com/UMassHockey/status/176470 ... 67643?s=20
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by TruBluMaroon » Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:49 pm

InnervisionsUMASS wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:34 pm
jjmc85 wrote: Mon Mar 04, 2024 1:29 pm Looking at the standings on CHN I’m pretty sure UMass has clinched a first round bye.

UMass is pretty sure they clinched a first round bye too :wink:

https://x.com/UMassHockey/status/176470 ... 67643?s=20
So sure that they waited until after noon to share the news😁

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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by jjmc85 » Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:38 am

^UMass posting that makes me feel better about it.

Regardless a huge game tonight for UMass is BU vs PC. UMass is tied with PC in HEA standings with the tie breaker looking for the final home ice QF spot. PC is ahead of UMass in the pairwise. A BU win would be really helpful short term for getting the QF game at Mullins instead of at PC or at Maine. Long term I’m not sure that all three of Maine, UMass and PC will make the NCAA tournament. Any loss by PC increases the probability UMass makes it. Also I doubt if UMass loses out they make it, and I’d feel better playing the QF at Mullins than on the road. Here’s hoping the Terriers do UMass a favor tonight and beat the Friars.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by Old Cage » Fri Mar 08, 2024 8:55 am

^ BU 4 Friars 2 Nice.

Providence's last game is Northeastern @ 4 on Saturday, so we will know what needs to be done before we take the ice.
Last edited by Old Cage on Fri Mar 08, 2024 9:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Fri Mar 08, 2024 9:02 am

That was a very positive outcome for us last night, even if it meant a BU win. Gotta take care of business this weekend.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by 69MG » Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:54 am

We're now # 10 in Pairwise. Does anyone know if the final Pairwise ranking is done before or after the conference tournaments? I still think we might have to split with Maine to be a lock for the NCAA tourney. Depends on what happens in other games (Colorado College and Michigan are close to us).

A split also guarantees us 4th place in HE as we own the tiebreaker over Providence.

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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by jjmc85 » Fri Mar 08, 2024 3:46 pm

^Yes. Final pairwise is done after the conference tournaments.

CHN has a probability matrix that hasn’t been updated since Saturday and has UMass as an 87% chance of getting in. Basically they run 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season up to and including conference finals and see who makes it in each of those cases. Apparently UMass makes it in about 17,400 of the simulations. Since then two big results went UMass’ way: BC beat UNH putting them even further back on the bubble and BU beat PC flipping UMass and PC’s comparison and moving UMass up to 10. I’d suspect that UMass’ probability increases as a result of those two games.

You can play with future results on CHN to see what the pairwise looks like with various scenarios. I haven’t done that yet but I don’t know if UMass splits with Maine if that’s enough. Depends on what happens in the NCHC I think with 4 teams at 11-16 in the pairwise.

Here the probability matrix if you’re interested: https://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratin ... Matrix.php
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by jjmc85 » Fri Mar 08, 2024 3:59 pm

Here are OOC results that I think UMass would like this weekend:
  • In AHA quarterfinals: AIC to beat Air Force. UMass bear AIC so it helps the RPI when AIC wins.
  • In the B1G first round: Notre Dame to beat Michigan would make it so Michigan can no longer improve their pairwise. Also PSU and OSU to be eliminated. No need for those two teams to take an autobid as they aren’t getting an at large
  • In the CCHA first round- Minnesota State to beat NMU since UMass swept MSU
  • In the last week of the NCHC regular season- WMU, SCSU, Omaha and CC to all lose. These are 11-16 in the pairwise so it would be nice breathing room to have them all lose
  • For independents- Alaska Anchorage to beat ASU since UMass swept UAA. I’m not holding my breath though.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by Sheck » Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:25 pm

2-1 loss to Maine. Tomorrow night is pretty damn close to a must win now.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by jjmc85 » Fri Mar 08, 2024 11:38 pm

Yep. Just about every out of town result hurt UMass too. Rough night.
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Re: 2023-24 Season

Post by TruBluMaroon » Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:02 am

^ If you can’t get a regulation win in two (2) chances against the last place team in the league, then give up the go-ahead goal in the last five minutes, this stuff happens. Have scored one (1) goal in two (2) games against Maine this season, so it looks like a shut out is needed.
Last edited by TruBluMaroon on Sat Mar 09, 2024 12:10 am, edited 1 time in total.

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