Game 17, 2014-15: Davidson

[MikeUMA]

I am planning on making the pilgrimmage to the Mullins Center but is there anyway that this game gets picked up by NESN+ channel?

Make your pilgrimage. This game is going to be streaming only. I was under the impression it was going to be available on regional sports channels, but seems that was incorrect.

Streaming link:
http://www.campusinsiders.com/live/mens ... -exclusive

[69MG]

Davidson beat the snot out of Saint Louis on Saturday, 89-54.
http://www.davidsonwildcats.com/news/20 ... ath=mbball

SLU is rebuilding after losing everybody, but that's still a beat down. Was SLU's worst loss since 2010. “Those guys shoot 3s better than most people shoot layups,” SLU coach Jim Crews said.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/ ... e41b8.html

They take 27 threes a game and make 11, which is 41%.
Gibbs 27/61 = 44%
Kalinoski 42/99 = 42%
Sullivan 30/91 = 33%
Aldridge 21/51 = 41%
Michelsen 24/49 = 49%

That's a lot of guys to pay attention to on the perimeter. Their tallest starter is 6'7 (Aldridge and Ekwu) so we should have an advantage inside, but you can bet we'll see a 2/3 zone for a lot of the game. Michelsen, by the way, is 6'9, 210 and gets 18 minutes a game.

[Chris20]

49%?!?!?! Wow....that's unreal. Especially for a lefty.

[69MG]

49%?!?!?! Wow....that's unreal. Especially for a lefty.

Are you referring to putts over 21 feet?

[Chris20]

[UMass87]

Given how poorly this team reacts to picks I suspect it's going to be long night of raining threes.

[rayers]

And they are extremely well coached.

[69MG]

Just another cheery note about their shooting. They hit their 2 point shots at 53.8%. This is a phenomenal offensive team and it will take a 100% commitment to keep their scoring down.

[xlgman]

They rank 5th in offensive efficiency. We've already played 3 other teams in the top 10 of that category (Notre Dame is #1, BYU #9, Iona #10). Interestingly, we actually held all three of those teams to one of their least efficient games of their respective seasons. That is, Notre Dame and BYU each had their 3rd least efficient game against us and Iona had their 5th least. So perhaps our defense isn't too shabby, having held some pretty potent teams to well below their average outputs and taking away at least part of what makes those teams pretty good.

I think the challenge is how do we utilize both Cady and Maxie to our advantage? They really only have one guy with the size to play Cady inside but that guy has taken 42 3-pointers and only 16 2-pointers on the season. So if Cady has to chase him around the perimeter, that negates some of his effectiveness inside. But the alternative is to have him match up with a smaller and likely quicker forward that can also shoot. I wont be surprised if we need to go smaller to defend the 3 point line and forego some of our interior advantage in the process. Meaning we might need big games from Coleman and Esho (and Dyson - who always looks bigger than he's listed). Be nice to have Seth for this one.

[NilesGold]

That's a lot of guys to pay attention to on the perimeter. Their tallest starter is 6'7 (Aldridge and Ekwu) so we should have an advantage inside, but you can bet we'll see a 2/3 zone for a lot of the game. Michelsen, by the way, is 6'9, 210 and gets 18 minutes a game.

Do they routinely use a 2-3 zone? Looks like they have a minimum of 3 guards on the floor at a time, using a combination of Ekwu/McAuliffe at center for about 20-25 minutes a game, neither of whom is a big threat from the perimeter. Then Aldridge and Michelsen round things out at forward.

Davidson is a ridiculously good 3pt shooting team, 6th in the nation in % and almost 40% of their points come from 3's. They're also a very strong defensive rebounding team and a pretty good offensive rebounding team as well, I'd guess their guards are scrappy and everyone crashes the glass. When they do miss 3's they're probably good a tracking down long rebounds. Their assist/turnover ratio is #1 in the nation, with their turnover % being exceptionally low. They get very few blocks and even fewer steals, their defensive efficiency per KenPom is 205th in the nation. They get to the FT line very rarely.

If UMass can somehow get Davidson to play a sloppy streetball style game, that would be ideal, but I doubt it will happen. Definitely need to push the ball up and try to get transition scoring opportunities because UMass cannot compete with Davidson in a straight up half-court game. Xlgman brings up a very good point, it's going to be really important how UMass uses Lalanne in this one. If Ekwu/McAuliffe aren't in the game for Davidson, Lalanne needs to be force-fed the ball in the post and he needs to score. If all of those requisites can't be met, he should be on the bench in favor of Esho or Coleman. This isn't a game for TBerg to get much time as Davidson doesn't have a big low post scorer. This is perfect for 3 and even 4 guard sets from UMass, possibly even with Esho or Coleman as the biggest UMass player on the floor. I think we'll see lots of Anderson in this one.

This is going to be an interesting game, if UMass plays it right I think they've got a good shot at winning.

[69MG]

That's a lot of guys to pay attention to on the perimeter. Their tallest starter is 6'7 (Aldridge and Ekwu) so we should have an advantage inside, but you can bet we'll see a 2/3 zone for a lot of the game. Michelsen, by the way, is 6'9, 210 and gets 18 minutes a game.

Do they routinely use a 2-3 zone? Looks like they have a minimum of 3 guards on the floor at a time, using a combination of Ekwu/McAuliffe at center for about 20-25 minutes a game, neither of whom is a big threat from the perimeter. Then Aldridge and Michelsen round things out at forward.

I predict a 2/3 zone because they can't afford to let Cady and Maxie dominate inside. They'll drop a guard down as soon as the ball is tossed into the paint and take a chance on us making outside shots. With their lack of size, they can't really play man up on Cady.

[dallasminuteman]

RealTime RPI has them with 117th best schedule YTD, us with 16th. Some familiar names in our neck of the woods, and we've had by far the best schedule. All is not lost if we just WIN....


47 Notre Dame 15-2 -- 142
48 Buffalo 10-4 -- 146
49 Davidson 10-3-- 117
50 Loyola Chicago 10-4 --86
51 BYU 12-5 -- 42
52 Rhode Island 10-3-- 120
53 UMass 9-7 -- 16

[NilesGold]

I predict a 2/3 zone because they can't afford to let Cady and Maxie dominate inside. They'll drop a guard down as soon as the ball is tossed into the paint and take a chance on us making outside shots. With their lack of size, they can't really play man up on Cady.

They could also play man and just bring extra defenders as soon as Lalanne or Esho touch the ball. If a team doesn't routinely use a zone, I don't fear them using it against UMass because they probably haven't devoted enough practice time to be able to really execute it well. That's why I was asking is they normally play zone or not.

[69MG]

^ I just looked at highlights from the Richmond and VCU sites, which show Davidson on D. You only see the offensive side if you watch Davidson highlights. You are right as I saw mostly man to man defense and their interior D was weak. But take it with a grain of salt as we're watching the other team's highlight package. The were weak inside against big men and slow to help on guards driving to the hoop.

I guess I'm not so worried about us scoring as I am about stopping them. Could be 170 points unless DK tries to slow it down.

[NilesGold]

^ Their KenPom defensive efficiency is pretty bad, so yeah I'm not too worried about their defense. I actually think UMass matches up fairly well with them. It helps that UMass has 5 quality guards (I'm including Anderson) and Esho/Coleman should be able to defend the perimeter fairly well, unlike a lot of big men.