Polls/Bracketology

NilesGold · Post by **NilesGold** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 3:40 pm

MikeEsq wrote:Hold onto your hats: the most thoughtful analysis Lunardi has EVER done on UMass is available here, from a conference call today.

http://espnmediazone.com/us/press-relea ... e-lunardi/

I find myself agreeing with Lunardi here, his comments make a lot of sense.

Chris20 · Post by **Chris20** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:19 pm

natwam2547 wrote:Ken Pomeroy just tweeted that he wants to see a Umass/Utah 7 game series determine the fate of the RPI.

A lot of disrepect going around. All that matters is what the committee thinks and how the team reacts, not Ken Pom, not ESPN and their ridiculous BPI, not you, not me.

I hope we can play that 7 game series at a neutral site. Utah has won a grand total of three games away from home. We've won 12. More than half of our wins.

Ken really likes Utah and their big wins over Evergreen St and St. Katherine, by 73 and 84 points.

Camby4Life · Post by **Camby4Life** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:28 pm

Looks like I was on to something with my Utah comparison. I really hope Arizona destroys them tomorrow. When did Umass become the battling cry as the model for being overrated and over seeded and for the death to the rpi? This should only add fuel to the fire with all of the bulletin board material. We are quickly becoming a national story due to our computer numbers.

Chris20 · Post by **Chris20** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 4:35 pm

Pittsburgh is good, though. Right, Ken? Give me a break. We've played a schedule with only a couple of cupcakes. And have a damn good record. It's all "luck", though. What kind of a math guru has a stat for luck? What an asshole.

minuteman08 · Post by **minuteman08** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:22 pm

Interesting seeing the list of committee members. No real close ties to UMass, though the LSU AD is on here (beat them). Locally, the Northeastern AD is on the committee but he's really the only Northeast tie-in. Surprisingly a lot of west coast affiliations.

Ron Wellman - Wake Forest AD
Joe Alleva - LSU AD
Scott Barnes - Utah State AD
Joe Castiglione - Oklahoma AD
Doug Fullerton - Big Sky commissioner
Mark Hollis - Michigan State AD
Judy MacLeod - C-USA associate commissioner
Bruce Rasmussen - Creighton AD
Peter Roby - Northeastern AD
Jamie Zaninovich - West Coast commissioner

Ron Burgundy · Post by **Ron Burgundy** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 5:28 pm

http://espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology
Lunardi's latest, would love this bracket. Stanford (NIT payback), Kansas (wounded), Then suddenly struggling Suckracuse. I know it means squat, but would make for exciting matchups

MikeEsq · Post by **MikeEsq** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 6:15 pm

Don't forget Wichita State Ron, who will be gone by then IMHO. The biggest threat from that bracket is Michigan State - if they're healthy. That's a big if.

The more things are shaking out, the more I WANT to be in the Midwest, although selfishly MSG is a walking distance away from my job.

xlgman · Post by **xlgman** » Wed Mar 12, 2014 9:41 pm

MikeEsq wrote:Camby, it isn't just that. It's also that, as our biggest fan Eamonn Brennan wrote earlier this year, we're a deceptively good defensive team at neutralizing one of the most dangerous aspects of the sport -- 3-point shooting. Our length and athleticism and willingness to play out at the arc really affects other teams' shooters.

We prevent teams from even getting 3-pointers off most of the time. Only 26.8 percent of our opponents' field goals have come from behind the line, which is 17th best in the country, if I'm reading KenPom correctly. Our opponents' percentage of total points that come from 3-pointers is 21.2, which is one of the worst distributions in the country (330th according to KenPom).

And when we allow our opponents to fire away, we're holding them to 30.7 percent accuracy from the 3-point line, the 27th lowest percentage in the country, again according to KenPom.

So for all the perception of run-and-gun, Chaz-will-lead-us offensive team, we're actually slightly stronger on the defensive end. And if we face a team that's overreliant on the 3-ball and we "bring our locks" to the NCAA Tournament, I like our chances.

Don't read too much into those numbers. We've played very few good 3PT shooting teams this year and a lot of terrible 3PT shooting teams.

DTM80 · Post by **DTM80** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 7:33 am

I am waiting to see how we perform in the A-10 tourney before I get too over confident. We can beat anyone on a given day but have shown we can lose to some poor teams as well. I think if we can get two wins in the A 10 tourney we can get a 7 seed. Would much rather that than an 8 or 9. If we get to the championship win or lose we should be a 5 or 6. The team needs contributions from all to advance that far in my opinion. I am hopeful Chaz and the other seniors play like there is no tomorrow! Play ball!

NilesGold · Post by **NilesGold** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 8:00 am

xlgman wrote:We've played very few good 3PT shooting teams this year and a lot of terrible 3PT shooting teams.

Did you reference something for this, or are you just going off your gut instinct? I haven't seen any stat that would lead me to believe UMass' opponents are any worse than average 3pt shooting teams. If you think about it, it makes sense that UMass is good at defending the 3pt line. It starts with the fact that DK seems to want the players to crowd opposing players at the perimeter, even to a fault, case in point the last play vs STL. Gordon is an excellent defender and DK seems to like having him guard the other team's best shooter. Putney is also very good at defending jump shooters, not so much at defending when they drive to the hoop.

Refuse2Lose83 · Post by **Refuse2Lose83** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:09 am

Down to an 8 seed playing K-State in Buffalo in Lunardi's latest. Wouldn't mind playing Villanova in the 2nd round, I don't see much special about them.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

xlgman · Post by **xlgman** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:11 am

NilesGold wrote:
xlgman wrote:We've played very few good 3PT shooting teams this year and a lot of terrible 3PT shooting teams.
Did you reference something for this, or are you just going off your gut instinct? I haven't seen any stat that would lead me to believe UMass' opponents are any worse than average 3pt shooting teams. If you think about it, it makes sense that UMass is good at defending the 3pt line. It starts with the fact that DK seems to want the players to crowd opposing players at the perimeter, even to a fault, case in point the last play vs STL. Gordon is an excellent defender and DK seems to like having him guard the other team's best shooter. Putney is also very good at defending jump shooters, not so much at defending when they drive to the hoop.

Both stats and gut. Some of our opponents were horrible, like sub 300 horrible. A dozen or more were well below average. Very very few were what you'd call really good from deep. I'll compile it later.

NilesGold · Post by **NilesGold** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 9:51 am

3pt% - SJU is top 50, Dayton isn't far off, Duq & GW are top 100, GMU is top 150, and UMass played SJU and GMU twice. The 3 worst 3pt % A10 teams UMass only played once (Fordham, UR & STL). A10 seems rather average to me, maybe a little below average.

Elon, FSU and BYU are all good
BC, Youngstown, New Mexico, Nebraska, Ohio, Providence are average
LSU, Clemson, EMU, NIU and M-OH are bad

OOC seems about the same as the A10, maybe slightly worse. As a whole, UMass' opponents are probably a little below average 3pt shooting teams.

78 · Post by 78 » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:18 am

Refuse2Lose83 wrote:Down to an 8 seed playing K-State in Buffalo in Lunardi's latest. Wouldn't mind playing Villanova in the 2nd round, I don't see much special about them.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Villanova would beat us by double digits.

uz2b-len · Post by **uz2b-len** » Thu Mar 13, 2014 10:50 am

NilesGold wrote:3pt% - SJU is top 50, Dayton isn't far off, Duq & GW are top 100, GMU is top 150, and UMass played SJU and GMU twice. The 3 worst 3pt % A10 teams UMass only played once (Fordham, UR & STL). A10 seems rather average to me, maybe a little below average.

Elon, FSU and BYU are all good
BC, Youngstown, New Mexico, Nebraska, Ohio, Providence are average
LSU, Clemson, EMU, NIU and M-OH are bad

OOC seems about the same as the A10, maybe slightly worse. As a whole, UMass' opponents are probably a little below average 3pt shooting teams.

Here's the conference stats:
POINT FG PCT G 3FGM 3FGA Pct
1. Saint Joseph's 30 222 581 .382
2. Dayton 31 201 536 .375
3. Duquesne 29 212 576 .368
4. George Washington 30 171 468 .365
5. Massachusetts 30 164 462 .355
6. George Mason 31 153 435 .352
7. VCU 31 230 662 .347
8. La Salle 30 172 526 .327
9. St. Bonaventure 30 142 441 .322
10. Rhode Island 31 148 462 .320
11. Richmond 31 195 612 .319
12. Saint Louis 31 174 547 .318
13. Fordham 30 209 689 .303

We held teams to an average of .307 three point shooting. That is, lower than ever team in the league's average except for Fordham.