Polls/Bracketology

UMassbball14 · Post by **UMassbball14** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:49 pm

eldonabe wrote:
aidanfromworcester wrote:If they win out they are a 4. If they lost to STL, don't get a bye, and get upset in first round of A-10's, they get a 9. Other than that, somewhere in between:

http://turtleboysports.com/2014/03/06/b ... ournament/
No way in hell they get to a 4. A 5 is the best possible outcome and no thanks BTW - I will take a 6 or 7 and be really happy with that....

Really?? If we win out we're a 4 regardless of what anyone else does. Unlikely, but a 4 is a near certainty if we finish 27-6, including 2 wins against either SLU, SJU, VCU, GW. Not to mention we'd have beaten all of the top a10 teams this season in a league with 6 bids, a top 10 RPI...I have a feeling our actual seed will be one better than the ones predicted in the media.

thecaptain · Post by **thecaptain** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:55 pm

new bubble watch
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

sleepy sheep · Post by **sleepy sheep** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:00 pm

UMass picked a good year to get ESPN and CBS to use the updated U logo. The blue bloods all keep their logos simple.

eldonabe · Post by **eldonabe** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:37 pm

Chris20 wrote:A 4 is definitely not out of the question. Don't listen to the guy who told us "NIT - mark it down" just a couple weeks ago.

I don't think it will happen, but it's there.

Yes, yes I did. Unlike others who "forget" about things they post, I own this. I called it as I saw it at that time.....

That GW win was a huge and unexpectd turnaround.

This is waaaay more fun that sweating a bubble position and relying on the outcome of others.....

fenway617 · Post by **fenway617** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 3:24 pm

thecaptain wrote:new bubble watch
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

While we all are looking for ways to get a top 5 seed as a matter of perspective last season UMass found themselves on the "bubble watch" for the last time on 3/17/13, they had an RPI of 55 and had just beat Temple. The weeks prior to that they were even mentioned on the list.

Massachusetts [21-11 (9-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 71] The Minutemen were a very late (re-)addition to the Watch after their Friday A-10 quarterfinal win over Temple, but it was clear even then that the win hadn't done enough to get them inside the bracket. They were merely back in the conversation, and only barely so. Saturday's loss to VCU shouldn't take them totally out of that conversation, but it's hard to imagine the committee really being interested after that missed opportunity. They can stay on the page, because we're inclusive like that. But it's a total long shot. The quality wins just aren't there.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... est-update

They were also on the list on 2/20/13 before they played Butler
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... bble-watch

aidanfromworcester · Post by **aidanfromworcester** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:24 pm

The more I think about it, the more I would prefer a 5 or 8 seed as opposed to a 6 or 7. Look, they're probably not gonna win it all right? Only one team can win. So wouldn't it be a lot bigger of an opportunity for the program to gain national notoriety as THE team that upset a 1 seed that one year? It's not like their odds of winning the tournament improve any more by getting a 6 or 7 seed. I just see more opportunity for a legendary performance as an 8.

Calex · Post by **Calex** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 8:36 pm

The ones are much stronger than the twos or threes (though I'm not convinced about the Shockers). Consequently the 3 seed or the 6 is the way to go in order to get to the Sweet Sixteen. Being second round fodder for a one seed gets UMass nowhere.

harbo · Post by **harbo** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:05 pm

Agree with Calex.

I posted this site once before, http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml and the six seed seems to have a big advantage for the sweet sixteen. And an overall win percentage of 55% is higher than a five seed and just slightly behind a four seed.

Yes, an 8 has won 18.9% of their games against a one, but that means they only have a one in five chance of playing the second week. Yes, there is an appeal to upsetting a number one on the first weekend, but I would prefer to be playing beyond that point and my chances are much better as a six seed.

thecaptain · Post by **thecaptain** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 9:44 pm

from cbs

Dayton's win at Saint Louis on Wednesday night likely means the Atlantic 10 will have six teams in the NCAA Tournament.

There will be plenty of bubble teams sweating over the next nine days, but none of the them should be from the Atlantic 10. VCU, Saint Louis, UMass, Saint Joseph's, George Washington and Dayton all have strong enough résumés to warrant at-large bids to the field of 68. That's beyond remarkable considering what this conference lost. Xavier, Butler, Temple and Charlotte all left the Atlantic 10 after last season when the league got five teams in the NCAA Tournament. The mere thought of this conference getting six teams in the field of 68 is easily one of the most amazing stories we've seen this year in college basketball.

xlgman · Post by **xlgman** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:36 pm

One of the mock brackets I saw had 4 of the 6 A10 teams in the East region. If they all made it to the Sweet Sixteen, they'd start knocking each other off. That seems wrong.

Is there a seeding principle that tries to spread out teams from the same conference?

UMass87 · Post by **UMass87** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:48 pm

xlgman wrote:...

Is there a seeding principle that tries to spread out teams from the same conference?

Yes, if they are BCS conferences.

xlgman · Post by **xlgman** » Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:55 pm

Currently, the majority of folks seem to think we'll probably find ourselves seeded somewhere around 5-7 in the NCAA.

Assuming we get a 6 or 7 seed, these are some of the teams that currently project as 10 or 11 seeds and might be one of our first opponents:

Pitt
Stanford
Xavier
Arkansas
Oregon
Baylor

Other teams that are probably more like a 9 seed but might drop:

SMU
Gonzaga
Colorado
Oklahoma St

And probable 12 seeds that might move up:

Tennessee
Providence
So. Miss
Wisc GB
Harvard
Toledo

Some other teams in the same range that we would probably not play because they are in our conference or we already played during the regular season:

St Joe's
BYU
Dayton

Which of those teams scare you or you think would be a great matchup for us?

Refuse2Lose83 · Post by **Refuse2Lose83** » Sat Mar 08, 2014 12:41 am

Would love to play Xavier or Oregon. Would hate to play Baylor or Ok State.

UMass87 · Post by **UMass87** » Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:31 am

xlgman wrote:One of the mock brackets I saw had 4 of the 6 A10 teams in the East region. If they all made it to the Sweet Sixteen, they'd start knocking each other off. That seems wrong.

Is there a seeding principle that tries to spread out teams from the same conference?

I thought about this a bit and I think that as long as the two best teams were not in the same region, this might be the best scenario for the conference as long as the teams didn't meet until the sweet 16. It probably maximizes the likelihood of getting teams to the elite 8.

Chris20 · Post by **Chris20** » Sat Mar 08, 2014 10:56 am

I think a lot of the bracketologists out there are pretty good at predicting who gets in, but very few put a lot of thought (or have much of a clue) about actually putting them into brackets. They probably do an S-curve, then make adjustments to avoid first round rematches, and that's about it. So I wouldn't worry too much about brackets and matchups at this point. It's a complete guessing game, while predicting bids can be done with a lot more confidence.