Bracketology

umassfan0299 · Post by **umassfan0299** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:45 pm

Call me an optimistic fool if you will, but I will still be watching tomorrow at 6 hoping UMass' name comes up. EVERY other bubble team in the country fell apart, the A-10 was the only conference (not counting the Sun Belt and WCC way back when) where an underdog stole a bid. The A-10 will benefit, 4 bids. I mean why the hell not? The Big East is getting 7, and the A-10 went toe to toe with the Big East and faired pretty freakin well during the non-conference, despite playing the majority of the games in Big East gyms. In 22 hours, I will give up hope completely. Until then I will continue to dream.

Zangzigger · Post by **Zangzigger** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:50 pm

According to Lunardi, we were team #66 today. Temple was #65, they were already in. Virginia Tech was #67. Lunardi normally gets a team or two wrong. Hopefully that team is UMass this year

Chizzle · Post by **Chizzle** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 8:55 pm

CHIZZLE’s BRACKETOLOGY!!!!

After doing some research.... I made my own Last Four In and Last Four Out. I know there are many people on this board that are going to criticize what I put down but isn't that the fun of it.

AUTOMATIC QUALIFIERS (19):

• American (Patriot League)
• Austin Peay (Ohio Valley)
• Belmont (Atlantic Sun)
• Butler (Horizon League)
• Cornell (Ivy League)
• Davidson (Southern Conference)
• Drake (Missouri Valley)
• George Mason (CAA)
• Mount St. Mary's (Northeast)
• Oral Roberts (Summit League)
• Portland State (Big Sky)
• San Diego (West Coast)
• Siena (MAAC)
• Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
• Winthrop (Big South)
• Temple (Atlantic Ten)
• Memphis (Conference USA)
• UCLA (Pac-10)
• UMBC (American East)
• Texas-Arlington or Northwestern State (Southland)
• Akron or Kent State (MAC)*
• Coppin State or Morgan State (MEAC)
• Jackson State or Mississippi Valley State (SWAC)
• UC Irvine or Cal State Fullerton (BIG WEST)
• Boise State or New Mexico State (WAC)
• Georgetown or Pittsburgh (BIG EAST)
• Texas or Kansas (BIG 12)
• UNC or Clemson (ACC)
• Wisconsin or Illinois (BIG TEN)*
• Arkansas or Mississippi State/Georgia (SEC)*
• BYU or UNLV (Mountain West)

Finals not decided yet in bold.
*Possibility that winner takes an Auto Bid away from the LOCKS.

"LOCKS" (32 teams)

• Big East (7): Louisville, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Connecticut, Marquette, West Virginia, Pittsburgh
• Big 12 (4): Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
• ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami (Fla.)
• Big Ten (4): Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
• Pac-10 (3): Stanford, Washington State, Southern California
• SEC (4): Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas
• Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
• West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary's
• MAC (1): Kent State
• Mountain West (2): BYU, UNLV

Additional automatic qualifiers: 5 conferences
TOTAL SPOTS CLAIMED: 56

"BUBBLE" (18 teams for 9 spots)

• IN (9, in order): South Alabama, Illinois State, Arizona, St. Joseph’s, Baylor, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Kansas State, Ohio State
BOLD = Last Four In

• OUT (9, in order): Mississippi, Villanova, Virginia Tech, Oregon, VCU, UAB, New Mexico, Houston, Arizona State
BOLD = Last Four Out

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mississippi [21-10 (7-10), RPI: 48, SOS: 70]
Last 10 games: 5-5

Kentucky [18-11 (12-4), RPI: 47, SOS: 15]
Last 10 games: 8-2

Villanova [20-12 (10-10), RPI: 51, SOS: 47]
Last 10 games: 6-4

Virginia Tech [19-12 (10-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 52]
Last 10 games: 6-4

Ohio State [19-13 (10-9), RPI: 46, SOS: 10]
Last 10 games: 4-6

Kansas State [19-11 (10-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 23]
Last 10 games: 4-6

Baylor [20-10 (9-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 40]
Last 10 games: 4-6

Arizona [18-14 (9-11), RPI: 38, SOS: 2]
Last 10 games: 4-6

Oregon [18-13 (9-10), RPI: 58, SOS: 30]
Last 10 games: 5-5

Arizona State [19-12 (9-10), RPI: 83, SOS: 88]
Last 10 games: 5-5

Saint Joseph's [21-11 (12-7), RPI: 42, SOS: 51]
Last 10 games: 6-4

Massachusetts [21-10 (10-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 66]
Last 10 games: 7-3

South Alabama [24-6 (17-3), RPI: 37, SOS: 120]
Last 10 games: 8-2

Illinois State [23-9 (15-6), RPI: 34, SOS: 65]
Last 10 games: 8-2

UAB [22-10 (12-5), RPI: 52, SOS: 85]
Last 10 games: 7-3

Virginia Commonwealth [24-7 (16-4), RPI: 56, SOS: 160]
Last 10 games: 8-2

New Mexico [24-8 (11-6), RPI: 59, SOS: 169]
Last 10 games: 8-2

Houston [22-9 (11-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 152]
Last 10 games: 5-5

Ajmal · Post by **Ajmal** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:00 pm

I think I just heard Bobby Knight say that seeding doesn't matter for a 10th time today.

78 · Post by 78 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:02 pm

Chizzle -- How can you put us in over St. Joe. It makes no sense, especially given that the committee has said they are going to place more emphasis on the conference tournaments this year. St. Joe's lost in the final game, they beat us twice and they beat Xavier twice in the last 2 weeks. I wish and hope you are right, but I honestly cannot see it happening. St. Joe deserves to dance over UMass to be fair.

FireLappas2004 · Post by **FireLappas2004** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:08 pm

A10 can get 4 teams in. After beating each other up for much of the season, it finished with 5 teams in the RPI top 50 with Rhody and Charlotte as very quality top 100 teams. This is a very good conference that should get 4 teams. We should be that 4th team, over Ohio St, Va Tech, and definitely definitely Oregon

Chizzle · Post by **Chizzle** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:10 pm

78 wrote:Chizzle -- How can you put us in over St. Joe. It makes no sense, especially given that the committee has said they are going to place more emphasis on the conference tournaments this year. St. Joe's lost in the final game, they beat us twice and they beat Xavier twice in the last 2 weeks. I wish and hope you are right, but I honestly cannot see it happening. St. Joe deserves to dance over UMass to be fair.

They are in.... read what I put down........ South Alabama, Illinois State, Arizona, St. Joseph’s, and Baylor are stated before the last four in.

There are 9 spots and St. Joe's was listed as the number four of the nine.

Sorry if you got confused.

umassfan0299 · Post by **umassfan0299** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:17 pm

78 wrote:Chizzle -- How can you put us in over St. Joe. It makes no sense, especially given that the committee has said they are going to place more emphasis on the conference tournaments this year. St. Joe's lost in the final game, they beat us twice and they beat Xavier twice in the last 2 weeks. I wish and hope you are right, but I honestly cannot see it happening. St. Joe deserves to dance over UMass to be fair.

I believe he does have St. Joe's in as well. Although I tend to agree St. Joe's will be ranked above us by the committee, I don't think it's a sure thing. Assuming the 2 head-to-head defeats aren't weighed heavily (in '06 George Mason made the field ahead of fellow bubbler Hofstra despite losing to them twice, and I don't think it's supposed to be a major criteria), I think we could have a case for being ahead of them. On one hand, our over non-conference performance was better, we had a non-conf RPI of 29, while St. Joe's ranked 65. Then we finished ahead of them in the conference standings, and Lunardi said it himself in an ESPN.com chat (ironically in defense of St. Joe's being ranked ahead of Dayton pre-AC), the committee doesn't like to leapfrog team A over team B if B finished higher in the league standings. So, the question will be how much weight is put on the A-10 tournament to determine if UMass or St. Joe's goes.

BTHoops · Post by **BTHoops** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:36 pm

Chizzel, I semi agree with your post, though I have Oregon and Villanova in over UMass and Illinois State.

Based upon the field you project Umass will have zero wins against NCAA tournament teams.

Umass is 6-7 vs. the top 100, Oregon is 8-11 and Villanova is 7-9. Villanova does have one terrible loss vs. a 201+.

Villanova has wins over NCAA teams: George Mason, Pitt, Temple, West Virginia and UConn. In addition they have a very controversial regular season loss to Georgetown that may be taken into consideration.

Oregon has wins over NCAA tournement teams: Kansas St., 2 over Arizona and Stanford. They also have a win against Arizona State who is a fellow bubble squad.

In my view those wins vs. teams that will be in the field may determine the bubble.

Illinois State, while having a nice RPI also has no wins vs. NCAA teams. Ill St. is 5-5 vs. the top 100 and also has one terrible 201+ loss. I have them out.

UMatt · Post by **UMatt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:37 pm

If in fact the Pac10 gets all three of their bubble teams (AZ, AZ St, and Oregon) and Kentucky also gets in, I think it comes down to one final spot (hopefully I did the math right) that will go to one of the following:
-UMass
-Ill St.
-Nova
-Ohio State
-Dayton
-Va Tech

The one team I feel that has a better resume than us is Nova. Three bad losses were to Cincy, Depaul and Rutgers, but all on the road. But they beat Uconn, 'Cuse twice, West Virginia and Pitt...all at home, but quality nonetheless.
Although we faired better on the road than they did and played a tougher nonconference, I look at their schedule and just feel like they did more.

As for the others...
Ill State - A lot of the analysts, including Lunardi of course, has them in. Why??? The common knock I've been hearing on our resume is we didn't beat any teams that will be in the tourney. Well, neither did Illinois State, plus they have less top 100 wins, more 100+ losses. Only thing they have on us is RPI. But I think we're in over them.

Ohio State - Didn't beat any of the top 4 teams in their conference until the last two games, both at home. One more top 100 win than we have, same amount of 100+ losses. But had tons of chances at top 50 wins, and only came up with 2. Also finished poorly. Resumes are close, could go either way between the two of us. But the fact that we won a few road games and their best two were at Cleveland State (which i doubt was even at their gym on campus) and at Illinois might give us the nod.

Dayton - Have us beat in RPI and wins at L'Ville and against Pitt trump anything we've done. Obviously we have the head to head, and I'd have to think the committee will see how big a loss Chris Wright was. Without him in the lineup, it was night and day. If they do somehow take 4 teams from the A-10, can't see the 4th team being a team that came in 8th place and also lost to us.

Va. Tech - I feel pretty safe in saying we're in better shape than them. They have a similar resume (6 top 100 wins, 3 100+ losses), but they whiffed on 6 of 7 top 50 chances...best road win is at Maryland (we probably have 3 road wins that are better than that one) and we have a better RPI. Seth Greenberg tried to say that anyone who watched them play UNC today and didn't think they were a tournament team is insane...well I guess I'm insane. You didn't win the game, Seth! And you've got very few quality wins this year!

If someone like Arizona St. gets left out, that would open up another spot, perhaps getting us in. Or maybe Kentucky too...but I think Kentucky gets in, because the committee may cut them slack for dealing w/ the weather situation.

UMatt · Post by **UMatt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:41 pm

Uggg, as I finished typing..UGA is trying to pull off a miracle run to the tournament. They're about to win the 2 games in less than 12 hours. I have a strange feeling they might have the mojo to pick off Arkansas tomorrow.

Jeez, I thought the Illinois/Wisconsin game would be the only game I'd care about tomorrow. I have a feeling one of those games will go wrong for us.

Butter · Post by **Butter** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 9:50 pm

Georgia won't actually stand much of a chance tommorrow in my opinion, the 2 games today will really hit them tommorrow, it's always the day after...And Illinois is awful, they are probably worse than the top 9 A-10 teams this year...

UMatt · Post by **UMatt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:06 pm

I hope you're right. I was glad Wisconsin beat MSU today, because I feel better that the Badgers can avoid the upset than if MSU were playing them.

And boy, I hope UGA is gassed. This will be their third game in a little over 27 hours. And Arkansas may have a little magic of their own, winning two tough games over Vandy and Tenn.

78 · Post by 78 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:11 pm

I got ya now, Chizzle. I was bleary-eyed and have been all day reading this stuff and trying to figure out what the hell is going on. Georgia and Illinois could screw us up yet, and I still think it is a long, long, long, long shot for us to get in. But, I guess weirder things have happened.

UMatt · Post by **UMatt** » Sun Mar 16, 2008 12:26 am

I realize I've posted in this thread more in the last 3 days than I've posted on the whole message board combined over the last month...but I'm trying to talk myself into different scenarios that we're still very much in the conversation for an at large, and perhaps posting it here is some kind of therapy for dealing with Thursday's disaster.

Anyway...

Lunardi was just on College Gamenight and gave his current last 4 in, last 4 out..if I remember the order correctly, it was:

Last 4 In
Arizona
St. Joe's
Illinois St.
Ohio St.

Last 4 Out
Va. Tech
UMass
Villanova
Arizona State

During the conversation (mostly between Lunardi and Doug Gottlieb), every team was discussed at some point OTHER than UMass, which annoyed me because I'd like to know what Gottlieb and Brennan think about us. However, like many of us, Gottlieb questioned Ill. St being in and Lunardi said, comparing them to Arizona St., it's hard to compare a very good mid major to a fringe high major team, and he just thought the RPI difference was too huge to ignore, therefore giving them the nod.
Both Brennan and Gottlieb wondered why not Villanova instead of maybe OSU? Lunardi didn't say much other than Villanova's 3 bad losses, especially a blowout to Rutgers hurt.
Gottlieb earlier said he didn't think Kentucky should be in, saying 12-4 in a down SEC isn't anything amazing this year, and having no quality road wins should hurt them. So I'm thinking maybe Gottlieb would put us in based on the things he's said.

I don't necessarily agree with Lunardi's list...but unfortunately I think Arizona State and Nova get the last 2 spots, unless UGA or Illinois win tomorrow. Though we may never know for sure, I think we'll end up as team #66.