COVID-19 Discussion

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69MG
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by 69MG » Sat Aug 01, 2020 2:15 pm

I have refrained from commenting much on this because I'm not sure what's factual and what isn't. Even the health care experts don't always agree. I'm on the cautious side; wear a mask, social distance and wash your hands a lot.

One thing I'm pretty sure of is that there will be a vaccine by the end of the year. With the enormous amount of potential profits to be made, one or more of the drug companies will find a way to get it done. I just hope that there is adequate testing, but no red tape to hold up the process.

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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by Floyd » Sat Aug 01, 2020 3:24 pm

^69, I remember back in early March I said to my sister it would be a good time to buy some stock in a company like Moderna. At the time it was $20-22/share. Wish I did :cry:
The E sho, best show in town

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e_parade
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by e_parade » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:45 am

Quann wrote: Sat Aug 01, 2020 10:04 am Antibody positive tests and people with Covid like symptoms that aren'tactually tested both get counted as positive Covid-19 results.
citation needed

(no they do not)

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Quann
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by Quann » Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:01 pm

Straight from an epidemiologist Dr. Alan Preston. Not my opinion.

UMass87
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by UMass87 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:06 pm

Covid-19 will be the excuse the Power-5 uses to finally abandon the NCAA. We may have watched our last real NCAA basketball tournament.

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e_parade
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by e_parade » Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:20 pm

Quann wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 1:01 pm Straight from an epidemiologist Dr. Alan Preston. Not my opinion.
I see he did a podcast (with Tony Robbins of all people), but there's no actual research into anything that he's posted anywhere.

And immediately showing that it's inaccurate: antibody tests were the device used to calculate that some areas of the country may have up to 10 times the number of COVID cases than have been reported. It's literally impossible for antibody tests to both be included in the original count while simultaneously showing that we could be up to 10x lower than reported numbers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... es-larger/

The only numbers in the official count are PCR tests. The CDC quite literally provides guidance against using antibody tests to diagnose: https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer- ... ing-basics
An antibody test looks for antibodies that are made by your immune system in response to a threat, such as a specific virus. Antibodies can help fight infections. Antibodies can take several days or weeks to develop after you have an infection and may stay in your blood for several weeks or more after recovery. Because of this, antibody tests should not be used to diagnose an active coronavirus infection. At this time researchers do not know if the presence of antibodies means that you are immune to the coronavirus in the future.

Also I went to his part of the podcast (starting at 3:30 here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgP_Au5RZVw) and he completely lies about how to calculate a Case Fatality Rate. This is the definition of case fatality rate:
In epidemiology, a case fatality rate — sometimes called case fatality risk or case-fatality ratio — is the proportion of deaths from a certain disease compared to the total number of people diagnosed with the disease for a particular period.
The number diagnosed. He calls it a rookie mistake, when in reality he's making the rookie mistake by confusing "Case Fatality Rate" and "Infection Fatality Rate" (which is something that will be calculated when the pandemic is over, and has no way of being calculated (though by estimation still) until then, because we won't know what the approximate actual prevalence in the population is until then or even the end numbre of how many have died, since that count is still increasing). His exact quote was "you don't look at the incidence rate, you look at the prevalence."

In virology, the incident rate is defined as diagnosed cases, and prevalence is defined as the total presence in population (including un-diagnosed).
CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease. IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections.
The dude appears to be a hack and has no actual research to back up his claims. Yeah, he was once a professor of epidemiology, but apparently he wasn't a very good one. This is my opinion, but it's backed up by the fact that the literal definition of CFR is what he says it isn't. This is one of the simplest statistical measures in virology and he can't even get it right. Also most of his courses actually seem to have not been about Epidemiology (as listed by him on his work history), they were instead: Healthcare Policy, Health Insurance Systems, Healthcare Management and Marketing and Business Statistics. And he's a doctor not because of completing medical school, but because he has a doctorate in Health Services Research & Public Health.

The guy who is on before him seems to claim that people are double counting COVID deaths by adding in COVID deaths to the Excess Deaths number. That's not something that's happening. What is happening: people are showing the excess death count isn't fully covered by the officially reported COVID deaths, and therefore the actual COVID death count is very likely higher. People are not simply adding the two numbers together.


Seriously. A podcast with Tony Robbins that involves people who seem to either be explaining things incorrectly or are coming up with made up scenarios to discredit what's actually happening. This, THIS is the best you've got?

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Berkman
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by Berkman » Mon Aug 03, 2020 5:41 pm

My son who works for MGM in Vegas and a friend of his bought season tickets for the VEGAS Raiders football games at the new stadium were informed today that the games will be played WITHOUT fans in the stands. Probably a lot of other teams will be doing that also.

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kdogg8173
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by kdogg8173 » Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:07 pm

e_parade wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:20 pm
The only numbers in the official count are PCR tests. The CDC quite literally provides guidance against using antibody tests to diagnose: https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer- ... ing-basics

This isn't true. The CDC counts probable cases, which are positive antibody tests, in their final numbers and they recommend states provide that data. Some do, some don't but if the CDC has probable cases they are included in the final counts. Massachusetts is one state that provides it which is why for instance their positive molecular test today was 168 but the official reported number is 199.

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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by TheInsider » Tue Aug 04, 2020 5:24 am

Has anyone looked at Mass.gov to read up on the travel order that went into effect Aug 1?? First of all they haven't updated their banned map since July 21st and according to the site they reference for the 7 day rolling average, Rhode Island should be on the banned list. They could at least keep the list updated.

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e_parade
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Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by e_parade » Tue Aug 04, 2020 7:32 am

kdogg8173 wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:07 pm
e_parade wrote: Mon Aug 03, 2020 3:20 pm
The only numbers in the official count are PCR tests. The CDC quite literally provides guidance against using antibody tests to diagnose: https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer- ... ing-basics

This isn't true. The CDC counts probable cases, which are positive antibody tests, in their final numbers and they recommend states provide that data. Some do, some don't but if the CDC has probable cases they are included in the final counts. Massachusetts is one state that provides it which is why for instance their positive molecular test today was 168 but the official reported number is 199.
Okay, so probable cases account for 65,510 of the 4.65 million. Even with that being the case and the CDC not following the FDA suggestions (fair enough), it only accounts for 1.4% of the total and still makes Quann's point (that he stole from a new favorite doctor of his) completely pointless. As if 1.4% is enough to make the numbers completely overblown. The fact that they separate it out from PCR is enough.

https://www.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases

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