Game 8: New Mexico State

[Bay Area UMie]

I've never thought it made sense to go back to FCS but this program has been the among the worst 3 teams in the country for about a half decade now. If they can't find a conference or start getting some wins in the next 1-2 years I'd probably start leaning FCS. Not looking for a debate, just how I am feeling right now.

The one silver lining of this season is the defense getting competitive, which I guess is the bare minimum you'd expect with Brown taking over. If the O could make a similar leap next year they'd at least get a couple wins. With a competent QB coming in they could make that leap. EMU, Temple, and NMSU are all probably wins this year with a decent QB.

Really hard to stay positive as a fan and you gotta wonder how the players can do it. I think there's a path to competitiveness, but I'm not a believer that UMass will be taking it.

Out of curiosity, I quickly imported the NCAA FBS historical game result data set into the statistical package “R” for some quick analysis since you did not mention our relative on field performance during the first 5-year period we entered the FBS subdivision. Looks like we are tied for second lowest win totals with Georgia State, but ahead of Kansas…

Lowest FBS win totals by school 2012-2016 (note, Idaho left the FBS division after 2014)

Kansas: 9
UMass: 10
Georgia State: 10
New Mex State: 11
Miami Ohio: 15
Florida Inter: 17
Hawaii: 18
UConn: 19

[Worcester_To_Amherst]

I've never thought it made sense to go back to FCS but this program has been the among the worst 3 teams in the country for about a half decade now. If they can't find a conference or start getting some wins in the next 1-2 years I'd probably start leaning FCS. Not looking for a debate, just how I am feeling right now.

The one silver lining of this season is the defense getting competitive, which I guess is the bare minimum you'd expect with Brown taking over. If the O could make a similar leap next year they'd at least get a couple wins. With a competent QB coming in they could make that leap. EMU, Temple, and NMSU are all probably wins this year with a decent QB.

Really hard to stay positive as a fan and you gotta wonder how the players can do it. I think there's a path to competitiveness, but I'm not a believer that UMass will be taking it.

Out of curiosity, I quickly imported the NCAA FBS historical game result data set into the statistical package “R” for some quick analysis since you did not mention our relative on field performance during the first 5-year period we entered the FBS subdivision. Looks like we are tied for second lowest win totals with Georgia State, but ahead of Kansas…

Lowest FBS win totals by school 2012-2016 (note, Idaho left the FBS division after 2014)

Kansas: 9
UMass: 10
Georgia State: 10
New Mex State: 11
Miami Ohio: 15
Florida Inter: 17
Hawaii: 18
UConn: 19

Thanks for the #s. I think most people were understanding that the jump tp FBS would be tough and there wouldn't be on-field success at first. What's inexcusable is not getting better, and in reality they've gotten worse since Whipple left.

Being bad is one thing. When they went 4-8 under Whipple they were bad. What we've seen since Bell took over is brutal, pathetic, incompetent, impotent, etc etc. We could probably come up with 50 fitting adjectives. At some point enough is enough. Can't go 1-10 or 2-9 for the next decade.

The program saw some level of investment this year. They brought Brown in, upped the staff salary pool, new turf. Good steps. No one rational thought they'd be good this year, but I think we all hoped they'd be better, especially against the softest schedule in the country. The EMU game was a killer because it was so winnable and they couldn't take it. Would have been a road win against a team that blew the doors off UMass last year.

If they can steal one win out of these next 4 then I'll call the season a wash, but I just don't see it happening.

If there's no noticeable jump next year I think it's time to start asking tough questions about the future of the program. Bamford and the UMass system as a whole needs to come up with some minimum goals, namely a conference and competitiveness on the field. If those goals aren't realistic I say go back to CAA.

[dennisdent]

Would going back to the CAA really be a bad thing or actually a positive. Maine, UNH, URI, are all better programs then UMass right now. Home attendance would go up with actual visiting fans coming to games like they did during the old CAA days. The product on the field for UMass isn't just bad, it is horrible! Watching almost any CAA game and you see better quality football then UMass plays. Shoot, you see better football at D3 and high school in Massachusetts's these days. I'm also done talking and criticizing this year's team and looking towards the future of the program. Next season will be very telling on the future of UMass football...

[eldonabe]

This is a dumpster fire - for now. The only pass I give is that Don inherited a dumpster fire.

If they cannot put together at least 2 wins next year - pay the man his money and bring a demo team in to turn that pile of concrete stadium into a pile of concrete.

[Steve81]

Would going back to the CAA really be a bad thing or actually a positive. Maine, UNH, URI, are all better programs then UMass right now. Home attendance would go up with actual visiting fans coming to games like they did during the old CAA days. The product on the field for UMass isn't just bad, it is horrible! Watching almost any CAA game and you see better quality football then UMass plays. Shoot, you see better football at D3 and high school in Massachusetts's these days. I'm also done talking and criticizing this year's team and looking towards the future of the program. Next season will be very telling on the future of UMass football...

Idk, Buffalo had the highest attendance then all the games you mentioned at 13,378. When a FBS football HC salary is half the basketball program, just want to throw-up the administration is not funding the football program to be successful. That said we continue to play local FCS games and like that. Losing does make one deeply disappointed and discontent with our situation. We need receivers that can catch and an offensive coordinate start calling plays like in the last half of the 4th qtr from the get go. All game!

[dennisdent]

Would going back to the CAA really be a bad thing or actually a positive. Maine, UNH, URI, are all better programs then UMass right now. Home attendance would go up with actual visiting fans coming to games like they did during the old CAA days. The product on the field for UMass isn't just bad, it is horrible! Watching almost any CAA game and you see better quality football then UMass plays. Shoot, you see better football at D3 and high school in Massachusetts's these days. I'm also done talking and criticizing this year's team and looking towards the future of the program. Next season will be very telling on the future of UMass football...

Idk, Buffalo had the highest attendance then all the games you mentioned at 13,378. When a FBS football HC salary is half the basketball program, just want to throw-up the administration is not funding the football program to be successful. That said we continue to play local FCS games and like that. Losing does make one deeply disappointed and discontent with our situation. We receivers that can catch and an offensive coordinate start calling plays like in the last half of the 4th qtr from the get go. All game!

Last season as a full CAA member in 2010, had two home games in Amherst with 16K+ and the Colonial Classic with 32k in Foxboro. This program would die for crowds like that now.

Brown is being paid 800k this year compared to Jerry Kill at NMSU making 550k, who outcoached him. The EMU head coach is making 540k. The Buffalo head coach is making 675k this season also.

[Bay Area UMie]

This is a dumpster fire - for now. The only pass I give is that Don inherited a dumpster fire.

If they cannot put together at least 2 wins next year - pay the man his money and bring a demo team in to turn that pile of concrete stadium into a pile of concrete.

Admittedly, I have no idea about the returning talent levels for our 2023 opponents. But, if you use average annual win totals from the 10-year period 2012-2021 as a simplistic predictive variable indicating competitiveness/winnable games, we should be very competitive in at least 6 games and possibly 7 next year:

NMSU 2.6 wins
UConn: 2.6 wins
New Mexico: 4 wins
E Michigan: 4.1 wins
Miami Ohio: 4.3 wins
Merrimack: FCS, record really not an issue

Other:
Army (on road): 6.3 wins (always tough at home, but this late season game will be a good test to see if we have improved)
Arkansas State (at home): 7 wins (but they are only 2-7 at this point in the 2022 season)

Bottom line, our 2023 strength of schedule will probably be in the bottom quartile-games at Auburn and Penn State will obviously help. Consequently, I think winning anything less than 4 games in 2023 is a huge disappointment-unless of course the point differential in lost games is low single digits.

[Bay Area UMie]

This is a dumpster fire - for now. The only pass I give is that Don inherited a dumpster fire.

If they cannot put together at least 2 wins next year - pay the man his money and bring a demo team in to turn that pile of concrete stadium into a pile of concrete.

Admittedly, I have no idea about the returning talent levels for our 2023 opponents. But, if you use average annual win totals from the 10-year period 2012-2021 as a simplistic predictive variable indicating competitiveness/winnable games, we should be very competitive in at least 6 games and possibly 7 next year:

NMSU 2.6 wins
UConn: 2.6 wins
New Mexico: 4 wins
E Michigan: 4.1 wins
Miami Ohio: 4.3 wins
Merrimack: FCS, record really not an issue

Other:
Army (on road): 6.3 wins (always tough at home, but this late season game will be a good test to see if we have improved)
Arkansas State (at home): 7 wins (but they are only 2-7 at this point in the 2022 season)

Bottom line, our 2023 strength of schedule will probably be in the bottom quartile-games at Auburn and Penn State will obviously help. Consequently, I think winning anything less than 4 games in 2023 is a huge disappointment-unless of course the point differential in lost games is low single digits.

[photoman]

^Anything less than 4 wins will be a disappointment? Champagne corks'll be popping if we get to 3 wins. And unless some drastic changes are made 3 wins won't be easy.

[Steve81]

Would going back to the CAA really be a bad thing or actually a positive. Maine, UNH, URI, are all better programs then UMass right now. Home attendance would go up with actual visiting fans coming to games like they did during the old CAA days. The product on the field for UMass isn't just bad, it is horrible! Watching almost any CAA game and you see better quality football then UMass plays. Shoot, you see better football at D3 and high school in Massachusetts's these days. I'm also done talking and criticizing this year's team and looking towards the future of the program. Next season will be very telling on the future of UMass football...

Idk, Buffalo had the highest attendance then all the games you mentioned at 13,378. When a FBS football HC salary is half the basketball program, just want to throw-up the administration is not funding the football program to be successful. That said we continue to play local FCS games and like that. Losing does make one deeply disappointed and discontent with our situation. We need receivers that can catch and an offensive coordinate start calling plays like in the last half of the 4th qtr from the get go. All game!

Last season as a full CAA member in 2010, had two home games in Amherst with 16K+ and the Colonial Classic with 32k in Foxboro. This program would die for crowds like that now.

Brown is being paid 800k this year compared to Jerry Kill at NMSU making 550k, who outcoached him. The EMU head coach is making 540k. The Buffalo head coach is making 675k this season also.

Winning brings fans. In 2014 we sold out against VCU. Against Rhode island last year attendance was 2,181*. It's all about winning, but will say football attendance is a lot more sticky. UMass basketball coach package is 1.7M and football as you mention is nearly half the over all package. Bamford is not budgeting Football to be a successful program. Look, I acknowledge the administration is prioritizing basketball as Bamford played basketball and certainly basketball fans agree. Get that, but pulling bait of a 2010 football season when we were winning. The CAA is not the same as JMU, George State, and others have moved to FBS. Again like playing some local teams but downgrade to FCS does not make fiscal sense.

* box score https://umassathletics.com/sports/mens- ... core/12990

[dennisdent]

Idk, Buffalo had the highest attendance then all the games you mentioned at 13,378. When a FBS football HC salary is half the basketball program, just want to throw-up the administration is not funding the football program to be successful. That said we continue to play local FCS games and like that. Losing does make one deeply disappointed and discontent with our situation. We need receivers that can catch and an offensive coordinate start calling plays like in the last half of the 4th qtr from the get go. All game!

Last season as a full CAA member in 2010, had two home games in Amherst with 16K+ and the Colonial Classic with 32k in Foxboro. This program would die for crowds like that now.

Brown is being paid 800k this year compared to Jerry Kill at NMSU making 550k, who outcoached him. The EMU head coach is making 540k. The Buffalo head coach is making 675k this season also.

Winning brings fans. In 2014 we sold out against VCU. Against Rhode island last year attendance was 2,181*. It's all about winning, but will say football attendance is a lot more sticky. UMass basketball coach package is 1.7M and football as you mention is nearly half the over all package. Bamford is not budgeting Football to be a successful program. Look, I acknowledge the administration is prioritizing basketball as Bamford played basketball and certainly basketball fans agree. Get that, but pulling bait of a 2010 football season when we were winning. The CAA is not the same as JMU, George State, and others have moved to FBS. Again like playing some local teams but downgrade to FCS does not make fiscal sense.

* box score https://umassathletics.com/sports/mens- ... core/12990

The CAA has six teams in the FCS top 25 right now and GSU was never in the CAA (all those teams would beat UMass right now). The football program has 17 coaches and analysts compared to basketball's four. Don Brown has stated that he is getting the support that he has asked for from Bamford. There is nothing to look up that shows football isn't being funded at the correct level compared to peer schools (MAC/Sunbelt).

[shizzle787]

As a UConn fan, it isn’t my business, but I don’t think UMass is dropping down to FCS. The net costs would actually increase as revenues are slashed.

There are two options: stay independent and hope for further realignment opening up a spot in AAC or drop the sport. At some point, there will be more realignment. Whether UMass wants to leave the A-10 for a further weakened AAC is the question. I don’t see the program getting a football-only deal.

The drop football option would stink but it would allow the athletic department to drop a bunch of women’s sport and still stay Title IX compliant.

[eldonabe]

Idk, Buffalo had the highest attendance then all the games you mentioned at 13,378. When a FBS football HC salary is half the basketball program, just want to throw-up the administration is not funding the football program to be successful. That said we continue to play local FCS games and like that. Losing does make one deeply disappointed and discontent with our situation. We need receivers that can catch and an offensive coordinate start calling plays like in the last half of the 4th qtr from the get go. All game!

Last season as a full CAA member in 2010, had two home games in Amherst with 16K+ and the Colonial Classic with 32k in Foxboro. This program would die for crowds like that now.

Brown is being paid 800k this year compared to Jerry Kill at NMSU making 550k, who outcoached him. The EMU head coach is making 540k. The Buffalo head coach is making 675k this season also.

Winning brings fans. In 2014 we sold out against VCU. Against Rhode island last year attendance was 2,181*. It's all about winning, but will say football attendance is a lot more sticky. UMass basketball coach package is 1.7M and football as you mention is nearly half the over all package. Bamford is not budgeting Football to be a successful program. Look, I acknowledge the administration is prioritizing basketball as Bamford played basketball and certainly basketball fans agree. Get that, but pulling bait of a 2010 football season when we were winning. The CAA is not the same as JMU, George State, and others have moved to FBS. Again like playing some local teams but downgrade to FCS does not make fiscal sense.

* box score https://umassathletics.com/sports/mens- ... core/12990

Throwing 100 dollar bills on a fire gets the same results as throwing 50's right now. I get what you are saying in regards to funding, but we are talking "chicken and egg" at this point. Spending 2 Million on a head coach and tripling the assistants salaries is not a guarantee that we can land 4 and 5 start players.

In 11 years this program's best season was 4 wins and 8 losses. 4 wins.... and that second 4 win team got the best representation that we had as a head coach let go (or whatever happened).

IDGAF if the University is a State Flagship and and ALL the rest of them have FBS football; I also DGAF if we are a top 75 ranked academic school and all the rest have FBS football. WE NEED BIG BOY FOOTBALL is the hubris talking.

Amherst is NOT a football destination.... it just isn't. This situation is the epitome of insanity and ignorant stubbornness. Umass has a horrendous field, exists in a football purgatory location, and is simply not built for this level of football.



People are afraid to just say it..... Understand what you are and try to be that and stop trying to be something that you aren't.

There are so many better ways for the administration to spend money on this school right now and in the future.,.... SO MANY!

[InnervisionsUMASS]

Football isn't going anywhere.

[stevemaz]

Guys, trust me, better days are coming... hoops to for those who havent seen my latest post after watching them last night