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Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2005 4:24 pm
R&G wrote:....87 - Take a closer look. Pomeroy has UMass winning 9 of 13. The total at the bottom of the column does not reflect a sum of the predicted wins (the * explains it).
I think you should re-read the footnote, dude.
Ken Pomeroy is predicting UMass will win 8 of the last 13. His game-by-game predictions add up to wins of 9 of the last 13 but that is NOT what he is predicting for the group of 13 games.
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2005 4:43 pm
R&G wrote:Truth - It's frightening that you find this stuff interesting. You must be a lot of fun to hang out with. If Pomeroy is not as Good as Greenfield, then why do they predict the exact same future wins for UMass with virtually the same margin in each case?
87 - Take a closer look. Pomeroy has UMass winning 9 of 13. The total at the bottom of the column does not reflect a sum of the predicted wins (the * explains it).
Small differences in the ratings can result in big differences in the results predicted for all games played by all teams. They may agree closely on UMass but not for every other team. I have seen detailed comparisons of the different rating systems and some perform consistently better than others. Again, small differences have big impacts when you look at all 300+ D1 teams.
Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2005 5:13 pm
UMass87 wrote:I think you should re-read the footnote, dude.
Thanks for setting me straight, DUDE. Now I know how to properly apply this completely useless information.
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:56 am
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:59 am
RPI: #57 SOS#: 13
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:15 pm
The Truth wrote:
Understood but the RPI is useless as an indicator of true power or as a predictor of future game results. If your only interest is whether or not you will make it into the NCAAs then the RPI is for you. If you want to get a measure on how good your team has played to date and what their chances are of beating the next team and/or by how much then the RPI is useless and irrelevant. MassMan06 seemed to be looking for the latter. As such, Greenfield, Sagarin, Massey and some others are far more relevant.
So you are sayng that the other power rating are good at predicting the chances of my team winning a game?
Did these rating help you predicate the UCONN and the GW games? How relevent were they on these games? Or maybe they told you FSU would beat Wake Forest.
All rating are just opinions or stats. We all know opinions vary and stats lie.
Except for the end of the year when they can help a team get in a tournement all rating are just for giving basketball junkies something to aruge about.
But thank you D.S. for maintaining this thread. I find it interesting.
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:18 pm
The ratings only lead to a statistical prediction for the next game. It is all about probabilities. The team with the higher rating has a greater than 50% probability of winning but it isn't 100% nor is it ever claimed to be. If it were that simple we wouldn't have to play the games. The bigger the difference in ratings, the higher the probability is that the higher rated team will win. You would probably be surprised at how high the probability was of UMass beating either UConn or GW based on the ratings.
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 7:33 pm
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 8:30 pm
And I think it is time to either close this thread or delete some posts.... Posts like that make this board look like MassLive...........
Where are you Mike??
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 8:35 pm
Back to the subject of this thread, after winning a game our RPI went down. Yuck.
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 8:37 pm
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 8:50 pm
Private Messages Are Good
Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:03 pm
InnervisionsUMASS wrote:And I think it is time to either close this thread or delete some posts.... Posts like that make this board look like MassLive...........
Where are you Mike??
People need to PM or e-mail me when things get out of line. I don't have time to read everything posted here.