Around the A-10 (2022-23)

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minutefanjsf
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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by minutefanjsf » Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:59 am

thecaptain wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:34 pm at this point, is it safe to say the A10 is only getting the one auto bid? any shot someone can snag at an at-large?
Dayton at 82 right now could possibly get an at large if they come close to running the table and lose in the A 10 championship. I think they are the only team with a shot at an at large. And, that would be a stretch with 7 teams 150 plus in the current Net.and five sub 200.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by eldonabe » Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:54 pm

minutefanjsf wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:59 am
thecaptain wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:34 pm at this point, is it safe to say the A10 is only getting the one auto bid? any shot someone can snag at an at-large?
Dayton at 82 right now could possibly get an at large if they come close to running the table and lose in the A 10 championship. I think they are the only team with a shot at an at large. And, that would be a stretch with 7 teams 150 plus in the current Net.and five sub 200.


This stuff is funny at times and not predictable - especially at this point. You get two teams that completely dominate the league (like 15-3 each) and play each other in the final, the will both likely make it.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by bobolink » Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:46 pm

eldonabe wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:54 pm
minutefanjsf wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:59 am
thecaptain wrote: Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:34 pm at this point, is it safe to say the A10 is only getting the one auto bid? any shot someone can snag at an at-large?
Dayton at 82 right now could possibly get an at large if they come close to running the table and lose in the A 10 championship. I think they are the only team with a shot at an at large. And, that would be a stretch with 7 teams 150 plus in the current Net.and five sub 200.


This stuff is funny at times and not predictable - especially at this point. You get two teams that completely dominate the league (like 15-3 each) and play each other in the final, the will both likely make it.
Exactly. For the last decade, the conference champion is usually 14-4 or 15-3 and usually loses in the A10 tournament. I think Dayton, UMass, VCU and even SLU could do that. At large selection is supposed to consider injuries and if you consider those, all resumes (except SLU) improve a lot. If Noah ends the year as UMass' #1 player, the team is 6-1 with him and 3-2 without him. Good enough if a great conference record comes.
Of course, Fordham and Duquesne could also fit the model, although no one expects that to happen. OTOH, Fordham seems to have the most favorable conference schedule of any team. If they can beat Davidson tomorrow, and they'll be favored, they then have St. joe's and URI and could be 15-1 when they host Dayton January 10. Fordham has a road win at Tulane and beat Harvard by 8. Things like a surprise Harvard winning the Ivy could matter.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by eldonabe » Wed Dec 28, 2022 8:05 am

bobolink wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:46 pm
eldonabe wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:54 pm
minutefanjsf wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:59 am

Dayton at 82 right now could possibly get an at large if they come close to running the table and lose in the A 10 championship. I think they are the only team with a shot at an at large. And, that would be a stretch with 7 teams 150 plus in the current Net.and five sub 200.


This stuff is funny at times and not predictable - especially at this point. You get two teams that completely dominate the league (like 15-3 each) and play each other in the final, the will both likely make it.
Exactly. For the last decade, the conference champion is usually 14-4 or 15-3 and usually loses in the A10 tournament. I think Dayton, UMass, VCU and even SLU could do that. At large selection is supposed to consider injuries and if you consider those, all resumes (except SLU) improve a lot. If Noah ends the year as UMass' #1 player, the team is 6-1 with him and 3-2 without him. Good enough if a great conference record comes.
Of course, Fordham and Duquesne could also fit the model, although no one expects that to happen. OTOH, Fordham seems to have the most favorable conference schedule of any team. If they can beat Davidson tomorrow, and they'll be favored, they then have St. joe's and URI and could be 15-1 when they host Dayton January 10. Fordham has a road win at Tulane and beat Harvard by 8. Things like a surprise Harvard winning the Ivy could matter.
Fordham are the NY Jets of the conference. They will be 6-12 +/-1 and in the bottom 4, it is as right as a quartz watch. Even with their gaudy 12-1 record they are still only currently favored to win 4 games in the conference. Ironically they are at 50/50 in the Umass game as of right now. These will adjust obviously as the season plays out but I would still be hard pressed to say Fordham wins more than 6.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by minutefanjsf » Wed Dec 28, 2022 8:41 am

eldonabe wrote: Wed Dec 28, 2022 8:05 am
bobolink wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 4:46 pm
eldonabe wrote: Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:54 pm



This stuff is funny at times and not predictable - especially at this point. You get two teams that completely dominate the league (like 15-3 each) and play each other in the final, the will both likely make it.
Exactly. For the last decade, the conference champion is usually 14-4 or 15-3 and usually loses in the A10 tournament. I think Dayton, UMass, VCU and even SLU could do that. At large selection is supposed to consider injuries and if you consider those, all resumes (except SLU) improve a lot. If Noah ends the year as UMass' #1 player, the team is 6-1 with him and 3-2 without him. Good enough if a great conference record comes.
Of course, Fordham and Duquesne could also fit the model, although no one expects that to happen. OTOH, Fordham seems to have the most favorable conference schedule of any team. If they can beat Davidson tomorrow, and they'll be favored, they then have St. joe's and URI and could be 15-1 when they host Dayton January 10. Fordham has a road win at Tulane and beat Harvard by 8. Things like a surprise Harvard winning the Ivy could matter.
Fordham are the NY Jets of the conference. They will be 6-12 +/-1 and in the bottom 4, it is as right as a quartz watch. Even with their gaudy 12-1 record they are still only currently favored to win 4 games in the conference. Ironically they are at 50/50 in the Umass game as of right now. These will adjust obviously as the season plays out but I would still be hard pressed to say Fordham wins more than 6.
I am assuming, might be a wrong assumption, that the NET rankings are fairly accurate right now. Without many chances for non conference wins left, not sure if there are any, ( big five games? Etc.), the A10 is the 12 ranked league. The range of ranking among the A10 schools does lead one to believe the league will return to form in terms of who finishes where, but it also implies a lot more parity, which could lead to a regular season champion with 12 or so wins. In that scenario, with the current rankings, Dayton seems to be the only chance at an at large. The wild cards are there with how the other conferences play out, ie Harvard winning the Ivy, ULowell, Charlotte, etc in their leagues.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by 69MG » Thu Dec 29, 2022 1:05 pm

The 2 teams with the best OOC records both lost their first A10 game last night. Duq. lost by 12 at Dayton which is not a bad loss. I think Dayton is still the class of the league.

As mentioned above, Fordham had much too easy of an OOC schedule and are not nearly as good as their record. They lost by 14 at home to a pretty good, but not great Davidson team.

I bring these games up because of our game at SBU. This is the best chance we've had in years at beating them. No excuses allowed for rust, a bunch of new players, etc. Both teams are in the same situation. A win here and a win at home next week vs. SLU would make a statement that we are legitimate contenders for a top 4 spot. I'm assuming (hoping) that Noah is close to 100%. If not, it's a much tougher task.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by inthescoop » Sat Dec 31, 2022 1:53 pm

Hurley probably just lost the game for #2 UConn.

Down 3 with 2:25 left and he gets a technical because he had to say something stupid. Hurley being Hurley.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by Camby4Life » Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:02 am

Home teams were 7-0 last night. Only 4 road wins total in the league after the first week of the season.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by eldonabe » Thu Jan 05, 2023 10:06 am

Fordham 0-2.

As predicable as the sun rising and sun setting every day.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by bobolink » Thu Jan 05, 2023 1:41 pm

Fordham-URI game was nuts. 10 minutes in URI was up 25-7. Fordham got it down to 3 before the half, and down to 2 with 1 minute left, but never caught up.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by nv73 » Thu Jan 05, 2023 4:02 pm

Interesting nugget I found on the FanDuel Sportsbook site: Yesterday, before the St.Louis game, UMass was listed at 20-1 to win the A10 regular season title. There were 7 teams ahead of them with better odds. Today, they are 8-1, and only 2 teams are ahead of them.(Dayton at -150 and St. Louis at 3 1/2 to one. VCU is ranked behind UMass at 15-1. It looks like UMass turned a lot of heads last night.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by uz2b-len » Fri Jan 06, 2023 8:07 pm

I've seen crappy UMass teams with losing records win at home against URI, SLU, Dayton, VCU, and probably other top programs. Doesn't necessarily amount to anything. Just some stupid algorithm.
"All credit to my teammates, all glory to God."-- Chaz Williams

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by nv73 » Sat Jan 07, 2023 10:07 am

Could be algorithms, but also could be some major wagers drove the line down. None of those “crappy teams” were as low as 8-1 to win the A10. (By the way, it was temporary…they were 14-1 yesterday, lending credence to the major wager theory. Algorithms would have kept the price relatively the same as no A10 games have been played since Wednesday)

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by inthescoop » Sat Jan 07, 2023 6:41 pm

Saint Louis beats the Bonnies by 23

That’s the A10 for you.. completely unpredictable and very very hard to win on the road.

Home teams are 6-0 yet again today.

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Re: Around the A-10 (2022-23)

Post by inthescoop » Thu Jan 12, 2023 8:09 am

George Mason was up 62-54 with 2:20 left to go. SLU went on a 9-0 run and wins 63-62. A10 basketball.

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