Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Anything and everything that is UMass Minutemen Basketball.

Expectations for 2022/2023 Season

Top 2 in A-10, NCAA tourney
7
7%
3-4 in A-10, NCAA bubble, NIT bid
39
40%
5-6 in A-10, NIT bubble
32
33%
7-8 in A-10
11
11%
9-10 in A-10
2
2%
Other
6
6%
 
Total votes: 97

Juice Stand
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by Juice Stand » Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:12 pm

Eldon, I hear that. When I say roster continuity I don't mean that everybody stays, I understand that's not realistic or best for all parties involved. I just don't want to see a mass exodus like we saw with McCall most years. 2-3 transfers, fine. 4 or more, especially impact players, and I'm starting to wonder if Frank's message is getting through. It would be a damn shame to lose guys like DD and Luis. DD sounds like he's in for the long haul considering he stayed through the transition, and there were some extremely complimentary things said in that Gazette article. RJ would be a shame to lose as well given his ability and his family's long ties to Frank Martin. Noah is also a question mark. I would love for him to stay obviously, but would totally understand if he wanted to explore professional opportunities.

Juice Stand
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by Juice Stand » Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:16 pm

69MG wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 1:50 pm ^ We haven't won 17 games (including games in the A10 Tourney) since 2014 so 17 wins in the regular season is a step in the right direction. It's hard to speculate but I'm guessing we might have gotten to 20 wins with a normally healthy roster. Every team has injuries, that's why I said "normally healthy".
I think 17 is my mark. 15 games got McCall fired (although it was probably a 5-year track record of losing that did the trick), so I'd really like to do better than that. 16 is one more win overall, but it would be with a 7-11 A10 record which would equal last year's record. 8-10 in conference (1 game A10 improvement) and 17-13 (1 game A10 plus 1 game non-con) is ok for year one improvement. Really though, let's just get healthy and get these guys back to playing their best.

Calmass9
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by Calmass9 » Mon Feb 06, 2023 4:25 pm

Interesting statistical breakdown on what has been a running topic all year long. All stats from cbbanalytics.com

Net Rating = Point differential over an average of 100 possessions. Example: If over the course of 3 games UMass has 300 total offensive possessions and scores 300 total points while opposing teams have 300 total offensive possessions and score 270 total points, UMass' net rating would be +10.0, hope this helps.

Atlantic 10 Net Ratings (conference play only)
VCU +14.0
Dayton +12.0
St Louis +6.3
Duquesne +5.0
Davidson +1.3
St Bona +1.3
St Joe's +1.0
Fordham +0.9
George Mason -0.5
La Salle -4.0
Richmond -4.2
GW -5.6
URI -5.8
*UMass* -6.7
Loyola -15.7

Atlantic 10 Net Ratings - When Brandon Martin is on the bench* (conference play only)
VCU +14.0
Dayton +12.0
UMass* +8.9
St Louis +6.3
Duquesne +5.0
Davidson +1.3
St Bona +1.3
St Joe's +1.0
Fordham +0.9
George Mason -0.5
La Salle -4.0
Richmond -4.2
GW -5.6
URI -5.8
Loyola -15.7

Atlantic 10 Net Ratings - When Brandon Martin is in the game* (conference play only)
VCU +14.0
Dayton +12.0
St Louis +6.3
Duquesne +5.0
Davidson +1.3
St Bona +1.3
St Joe's +1.0
Fordham +0.9
George Mason -0.5
La Salle -4.0
Richmond -4.2
GW -5.6
URI -5.8
Loyola -15.7
UMass* -24.2

Even with the injuries, over the last 6 games UMass has a +5.6 net rating when Brandon is on the bench and a -30.9 net rating when he is in the game. This team still has the opportunity to be very good the rest of the year if Frank makes the simple, yet difficult, decision of not playing his son.

inthescoop
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by inthescoop » Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:12 pm

LOL get over it..

Calmass9
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by Calmass9 » Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:28 pm

inthescoop wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 5:12 pm LOL get over it..
Get over what exactly? It's pretty damning statistical evidence that Frank's decision to start and play his son so many minutes this year has directly contributed to losses. If you don't agree with the analysis then that's fine but saying "get over it" makes me believe you know it's a problem but are going to back the coach no matter what. Which, again, is fine but I just can't be that type of fan unfortunately.

NilesGold
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by NilesGold » Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:15 pm

^ Seems he doesn't like that you have data to support an assertion.

inthescoop
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by inthescoop » Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:40 pm

No we have seen this data for weeks now and what has changed? Nothing. Why let things affect you that you have no control over. In a month, you will never have to deal with it again.

Support and encouragement is key to a teams success. How do you expect for a team to play their best with only misery and negativity from their fans?

Listen, I am not a fan of nepotism as well but the kid just had his birthday. How about some love and a happy birthday instead of the constant hate. Imagine putting all your time into finding data to bash a college student as a grown man.

We can be better here and we all have what it takes.

eldonabe
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by eldonabe » Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:48 pm

NilesGold wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:15 pm ^ Seems he doesn't like that you have data to support an assertion.
Yes this....

eldonabe
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by eldonabe » Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:51 pm

Juice Stand wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 2:12 pm Eldon, I hear that. When I say roster continuity I don't mean that everybody stays, I understand that's not realistic or best for all parties involved. I just don't want to see a mass exodus like we saw with McCall most years. 2-3 transfers, fine. 4 or more, especially impact players, and I'm starting to wonder if Frank's message is getting through. It would be a damn shame to lose guys like DD and Luis. DD sounds like he's in for the long haul considering he stayed through the transition, and there were some extremely complimentary things said in that Gazette article. RJ would be a shame to lose as well given his ability and his family's long ties to Frank Martin. Noah is also a question mark. I would love for him to stay obviously, but would totally understand if he wanted to explore professional opportunities.

FWIW Gapare needs to play more minutes at this point - just get more game speed minutes under his belt. I know he is raw, but an off season with the weights and nutrition guys and a year of maturity and he will be just fine. Luis is the kid I am worried about losing. You can build the team around him as far as I am concerned - he is their best all around player.

capezona
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by capezona » Mon Feb 06, 2023 7:04 pm

inthescoop wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:40 pm No we have seen this data for weeks now and what has changed? Nothing. Why let things affect you that you have no control over. In a month, you will never have to deal with it again.

Support and encouragement is key to a teams success. How do you expect for a team to play their best with only misery and negativity from their fans?

Listen, I am not a fan of nepotism as well but the kid just had his birthday. How about some love and a happy birthday instead of the constant hate. Imagine putting all your time into finding data to bash a college student as a grown man.

We can be better here and we all have what it takes.
Well said. Thanks.

Calmass9
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by Calmass9 » Mon Feb 06, 2023 8:30 pm

inthescoop wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 6:40 pm No we have seen this data for weeks now and what has changed? Nothing. Why let things affect you that you have no control over. In a month, you will never have to deal with it again.

Support and encouragement is key to a teams success. How do you expect for a team to play their best with only misery and negativity from their fans?

Listen, I am not a fan of nepotism as well but the kid just had his birthday. How about some love and a happy birthday instead of the constant hate. Imagine putting all your time into finding data to bash a college student as a grown man.

We can be better here and we all have what it takes.
You’re doing a great job of assuming my intent and emotions here.

How am I bashing Brandon? The post was a statistical analysis of UMass’ performance when he is and isn’t on the court. That’s it. At the end of my original post and in my subsequent post I actually called out Frank for the decision to play him so many mins. It’s 100% on him, not Brandon.

He’s also 24 years old, not some 18 or 19 year old kid. I would hope that given the fact he’s played college basketball for 6 years that he would understand that posting statistics on a message board dedicated to the team he plays for isn’t character assassination. Clearly you don’t, which is alarming on its own, but Brandon seems like a great dude and I hope he had a wonderful 24th birthday.

Finally, I disagree with your sentiment that being a fan of a team means you have to be overwhelmingly supportive at all times. People being critical of a team or a coach is what happens when you have fans that care deeply. And I care deeply about this team. So you can feel free to take the approach of never saying anything critical about anyone or anything associated with UMass Basketball but stop lecturing me and others on how we should support this team just because you disagree with it. It’s nauseating.

vanmeter
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by vanmeter » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:03 pm

Calmass9 I agree with you. A message board is a means to give opinions both critical and supportive. Being critical in instances does not make you any less supportive of the program.

Minutemaniac74
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by Minutemaniac74 » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:08 pm

^^. The problem is the beating of the dead horse here with the "UMass NET with Martin/UMass NET without Martin", then claiming "Im not bashing Brandon, I'm criticizing Frank", and Im gonna call bull***t on that one. What about Keon, who had the 3rd worst NET in the conference as of the end of January? What's the team NET with him on or off the court?? We get it, there's players that probably deserve more minutes, however you have no idea what goes on in practice and on non-game days. Maybe Brandon is the first one in the gym, last one out of the gym, and spends the most individual time working on his game. Maybe he's the most consistent player in doing what the coaches are asking for in practice. Maybe he's getting minutes over other players simply because he doesn't get beat back down the court because he was celebrating after making a highlight basket. There could be LOADS of things happening outside of the 80 minutes/week we get to see this team. Maybe that's the culture that Frank is talking about. And maybe, just maybe, his teammates really like him and are also negatively affected by seeing all the bashing he (oops..I mean Frank) takes on Twitter/social media/umasshoops/wherever you wanna post your negative NET rankings crap.

inthescoop
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by inthescoop » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:23 pm

Minutemaniac74 wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:08 pm ^^. The problem is the beating of the dead horse here with the "UMass NET with Martin/UMass NET without Martin", then claiming "Im not bashing Brandon, I'm criticizing Frank", and Im gonna call bull***t on that one. What about Keon, who had the 3rd worst NET in the conference as of the end of January? What's the team NET with him on or off the court?? We get it, there's players that probably deserve more minutes, however you have no idea what goes on in practice and on non-game days. Maybe Brandon is the first one in the gym, last one out of the gym, and spends the most individual time working on his game. Maybe he's the most consistent player in doing what the coaches are asking for in practice. Maybe he's getting minutes over other players simply because he doesn't get beat back down the court because he was celebrating after making a highlight basket. There could be LOADS of things happening outside of the 80 minutes/week we get to see this team. Maybe that's the culture that Frank is talking about. And maybe, just maybe, his teammates really like him and are also negatively affected by seeing all the bashing he (oops..I mean Frank) takes on Twitter/social media/umasshoops/wherever you wanna post your negative NET rankings crap.
If this wasn't mentioned now, we wouldn't see it here the entire year.

Well said...

The guys on here who don't even know how to dribble a basketball seem to know it all though. How? Not sure, but they really believe they know it all.

Image

NilesGold
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Re: Expectations for 2022-23 Season

Post by NilesGold » Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:32 pm

Minutemaniac74 wrote: Mon Feb 06, 2023 9:08 pm ^^. The problem is the beating of the dead horse here with the "UMass NET with Martin/UMass NET without Martin", then claiming "Im not bashing Brandon, I'm criticizing Frank", and Im gonna call bull***t on that one. What about Keon, who had the 3rd worst NET in the conference as of the end of January? What's the team NET with him on or off the court?? We get it, there's players that probably deserve more minutes, however you have no idea what goes on in practice and on non-game days. Maybe Brandon is the first one in the gym, last one out of the gym, and spends the most individual time working on his game. Maybe he's the most consistent player in doing what the coaches are asking for in practice. Maybe he's getting minutes over other players simply because he doesn't get beat back down the court because he was celebrating after making a highlight basket. There could be LOADS of things happening outside of the 80 minutes/week we get to see this team. Maybe that's the culture that Frank is talking about. And maybe, just maybe, his teammates really like him and are also negatively affected by seeing all the bashing he (oops..I mean Frank) takes on Twitter/social media/umasshoops/wherever you wanna post your negative NET rankings crap.
Countering a data supported assertion with 20 "maybes" doesn't seem all that effective here.

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