COVID-19 Discussion

Whatever else you wanna rant about.
User avatar
e_parade
Junior
Posts: 288
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:15 pm
Location: Boston

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by e_parade » Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:37 am

harbo wrote:
Mon Jun 22, 2020 9:40 pm
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covi ... RI~TTO~USA

The struggle continues. We are s.l.o.w.l.y making headway as this interactive graphic shows us making slow progress with our new cases doubling about every seven days. Only Brazil, Russia, India and Mexico seem to be in similar or worse shape among the larger counties around the world.
We were turning a corner, led mostly by the Northeast (especially NY and NJ, but for sure also MA) getting the case counts down. Unfortunately far too many states currently have their case numbers going up, and we're actually starting to see as many cases as we were before but with the epicenters being in the South, Southwest, and California. California and Texas both had over 5000 new cases yesterday and they're going to head down different paths:

Newsom announced he wants mandatory masks in California.
Abbott said he needs another month of data before he can make a decision, despite admitting things aren't going well.


It's hard to track the country as whole because of how different the various areas are doing and handling it all. I'm hoping we don't see more terrible numbers on the death side...but those numbers tend to run behind cases by 2-3 weeks. And AZ (for instance) is approaching 90% ICU capacity after being in the 70s 2 weeks ago.

7 day moving average is climbing quickly again.
Image

User avatar
Quann
Senior
Posts: 1385
Joined: Sun Apr 06, 2003 11:17 pm
Location: Start Line, MA

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by Quann » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:36 am

Have you guys looked at the CDC's death number demographic? Just .1% of overall COVID deaths are under 25 years old and it goes up to a measly .8% under 35 years old. Can someone explain to me why all schools and colleges can't resume in the fall? The numbers don't support the argument. There are other viruses and illnesses that are far more dangerous to younger people than this virus. Hysteria, that has been media driven from the start has given way to plain statistics and probability.

McKinney
Senior
Posts: 1166
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:12 pm

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by McKinney » Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:54 am

Quann wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:36 am
Have you guys looked at the CDC's death number demographic? Just .1% of overall COVID deaths are under 25 years old and it goes up to a measly .8% under 35 years old. Can someone explain to me why all schools and colleges can't resume in the fall? The numbers don't support the argument. There are other viruses and illnesses that are far more dangerous to younger people than this virus. Hysteria, that has been media driven from the start has given way to plain statistics and probability.
Because teachers and parents could get it from the kids spreading it around?
Class of 2019 - @StatsMass

harbo
Hall of Fame
Posts: 2137
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2003 10:22 pm

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by harbo » Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:12 pm

McKinney wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:54 am
Quann wrote:
Sun Jun 28, 2020 10:36 am
Have you guys looked at the CDC's death number demographic? Just .1% of overall COVID deaths are under 25 years old and it goes up to a measly .8% under 35 years old. Can someone explain to me why all schools and colleges can't resume in the fall? The numbers don't support the argument. There are other viruses and illnesses that are far more dangerous to younger people than this virus. Hysteria, that has been media driven from the start has given way to plain statistics and probability.
Because teachers and parents could get it from the kids spreading it around?
A significantly high percentage of grammar and high school support personnel including bus drivers, custodians, cafeteria workers, medical personnel, security personnel are in the higher age groups (often retired people not ready mentally, physically or economically to stay home for good) and are in that vulnerable population that doesn't need to be in potentially daily contact with the disease. Most school systems struggle to find replacements as it is now, nevermind if significant numbers did quit/die. There are also large numbers of grandparents watching the kids before and after school who don't need to be exposed. Never mind that these people would often unknowingly spread the disease further. Dr. Fauci keeps trying to pound this concept into bunches of thick skulls.

Having said that, colleges could possibly reopen some more as most students would not be in daily contact with the most vulnerable populations and there are better options for on-line learning than elementary/high schools. Still plenty of opportunities to spread the disease, but there are some insulating aspects to colleges to open up a bit more.

User avatar
e_parade
Junior
Posts: 288
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:15 pm
Location: Boston

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by e_parade » Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:05 am

Also because death is not the only bad outcome from COVID-19. People live but have month long (some aren't even done yet) recoveries where they're unable to do much of anything simply because they're unable to breathe like they used to (also because their muscles have atrophied quite a bit).

It's not a situation where if you're super unlucky you'll die but otherwise you're perfectly fine. There's a world of bad things in the middle.


Also there are about 20 million college students in the US out there each year. 0.1% of 20 million is 20,000. You think that's an acceptable number of potentially dead 18-22 year olds? And that's before we even get to literally everyone else who works at a university/college. This also doesn't address all the people who might not even be able to attend classes because they're sick for so long or because they're recovering for so long after being cleared. This is also only looking at colleges, there are a shit ton more at the levels below.


Also were you saying that it's 0.1% of all deaths so far have been in that age range? Or were you saying 0.1% of people in that age range who get sick end up dying? They're very different things.

Online
User avatar
UMass02
Senior
Posts: 1213
Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2003 8:14 am

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by UMass02 » Mon Jun 29, 2020 1:25 pm

UMass’ COVID-19 plan

https://www.umass.edu/coronavirus/sites ... Plan_1.pdf

- Mostly online classes
- Students may live in the dorms with restrictions
- Spectators at athletic events TBD

User avatar
e_parade
Junior
Posts: 288
Joined: Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:15 pm
Location: Boston

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by e_parade » Mon Jun 29, 2020 2:20 pm

This is somewhat related: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 150310.htm

Essentially the data shows that when a new pro sports franchise is brought to the city, flu deaths increase by anywhere from 4-24% initially...and then stay that way.
It isn't one or two people dying. This is closer to 30 or 40 additional flu deaths over the course of flu season. When you blow it up to a virus that's more fatal like COVID-19, we could be talking about hundreds of additional deaths because of these games.

Floyd
Hall of Fame
Posts: 6823
Joined: Sun Apr 06, 2003 8:50 am
Location: Not where I should be

Re: COVID-19 Discussion

Post by Floyd » Mon Jun 29, 2020 5:56 pm

Good points by harbo and e_parade. And since this is such an unknown situation, we most likely haven't begun to even see the possible long term effects to the younger population.
The E sho, best show in town

Post Reply