Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Anything and everything that is UMass Minutemen Basketball.
User avatar
natwam2547
Senior
Posts: 1611
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2013 11:31 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by natwam2547 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 2:55 pm

69MG wrote:
Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:00 pm
I saw the comments about Holloway's eye and Diallo's knee. Neither were dressed, along with LP, KTM and Cobb, who we knew were injured. Then we lost Clergeot when he reinjured his thumb (I think that was the injury). Looked a lot like last year's roster out there. I'm still trying to decide if either Holloway or Diallo was the player who was late and MM benched him for tonight, using injury as the reason.
McCall had no problem benching Sy earlier in the year for violation of team rules. I doubt he'd protect Diallo with a phantom injury but not Sy.

Juice Stand
Senior
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:37 am
Location: Eastern Ma

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by Juice Stand » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:16 pm

Count me as one of the guys that thinks McCall gives a good press conference/radio interview, because he gets into more tactical specifics than his predecessor did. It makes me think he actually knows what he's talking about and has a plan to fix it. I am, however, very surprised and disappointed that he is so willing to call his players out publicly. He rips guys on the radio show every week and calls them out by name if he thinks they deserve it, and then bringing up this St Joe's thing after the Dayton game was odd (some players apparently were not very excited after the comeback win). I don't know why he would bring it up now, or ever. I guess because he was trying to praise Randall West for his passion and used it as a comparison. Keep it in house McCall, your players will be less likely to revolt.

Juice Stand
Senior
Posts: 1084
Joined: Sun Sep 25, 2011 11:37 am
Location: Eastern Ma

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by Juice Stand » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:24 pm

TheChamp wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:10 am
All I’m gonna say is McCall is responsible for putting together most of the roster. And it’s always telling when coaches then bemoan the players they’ve compiled.

Also will point out that the main concern during the hiring process with him was that his 2nd year Chattanooga team’s locker room basically imploded mid season. All sorts of problems. Then he jump ship to us as soon as he could, riding the high of his first season, and flukey NCAA appearance with a roster that a guy named Will Wade put together. There were all sorts of worrisome reports about an out of control locker room, mutiny basically, and nonetheless the Mocs fans weren’t sad to see him go at all. Tons of guys had left and those Mocs teams were at the bottom of the Southern Conference both last year and this year. What does it say about his ability to bring in, develop, and retain talent? We’re basically seeing the same thing in year 2 here. Hate to say I told you so, but it was the biggest worry. Bottom line, just not surprised a roster full of city kids largely from the northeast aren’t going all in for some conservative Florida cat who never played a lick of college basketball, probably never even saw snow before coming to Amherst, when the going gets tough. McCall lacks identity, authenticity and conviction as a coach and it’s reflected with his teams. Bad hire if there’s ever been one. Not sure we’d be much worse is Randall West was the head coach... hey there’s an idea!
I agree with some of what you're saying here, but I wouldn't call this a roster of kids largely from the Northeast. I count 9 players that aren't from the Northeast (which I would count as New England plus NY, NJ, and parts of PA).https://umassathletics.com/roster.aspx?path=mbball

User avatar
uz2b-len
Hall of Fame
Posts: 11176
Joined: Fri May 27, 2005 6:03 pm
Location: Deerfield, MA

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by uz2b-len » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:47 pm

I have zero problem with how MM is comporting himself in the public sphere. That is the very least of the problems in my eyes. He calls out players for specific errors like not holding on to the ball (Holloway) or not getting the team into the offensive flow (Wood), and I see nothing wrong with that. It just emphasizes the things he's teaching them. He's not saying they are bad players, I think he's just talking about where they need to improve. His other comments about his disappointment in the level of commitment are not attached to specific players, even though he obviously knows who he means. I love what he's demanding from his team. He needs more guys like Clergeot and he's gonna get them, I think. Yes, he had a tough 2nd year at Chattanooga, but who knows what his third year might have looked like? Maybe it won't work, but I'll remain curious at least for now.
"All credit to my teammates, all glory to God."-- Chaz Williams

vanmeter
Senior
Posts: 1937
Joined: Wed Apr 02, 2003 9:12 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26) of

Post by vanmeter » Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:29 pm

I think MCCall tries to implement a very tight rigid disciplined program. That can work when players see the successs it is intended to produce. If however the team is struggling and disoriented this approach wears thin.
The fact that he put the blame primarily on the players is a certain way of diflecting Criticisn from himself.i think of him putting the onus on the players rather than the fact he is having troubletrouble connecting with them is more on him . He recruited most of the players on the team. If a players respects you and feel you have their back they are apt to want to give there all.All in all he needs to commmand the respect of the players if he is to be successful . To date he has not done that.

minutefanjsf
Senior
Posts: 1726
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:17 am

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26) of

Post by minutefanjsf » Wed Feb 27, 2019 10:06 pm

vanmeter wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 9:29 pm
I think MCCall tries to implement a very tight rigid disciplined program. That can work when players see the successs it is intended to produce. If however the team is struggling and disoriented this approach wears thin.
The fact that he put the blame primarily on the players is a certain way of diflecting Criticisn from himself.i think of him putting the onus on the players rather than the fact he is having troubletrouble connecting with them is more on him . He recruited most of the players on the team. If a players respects you and feel you have their back they are apt to want to give there all.All in all he needs to commmand the respect of the players if he is to be successful . To date he has not done that.
Disagree. He has consistently said he himself has not done a good job. He puts the execution issues on the players and the fort issues on the players. But then blames himself for not being able to motivate or get them to execute. I do think he has a problem trying to get them to play impassioned ball while also being critical of their execution. The players look afraid to make mistakes and thus go through the motions to make sure they look “right”. The three pass weave without looking in is a prime example of this. I coach, not at a high level and realized long ago that you have to players to play without fear while at the same time making sure they do the right things. The current UMass team looks like if has some guys who play with passion and others who want to make the right plays. Those who play with passion were not getting rewarded until recently. He did it backwards.

McKinney
Senior
Posts: 1167
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:12 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by McKinney » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:04 am

Jackson96 wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:37 pm
I do think kids are more aware of their own particular situations and how this is a business and thus have no real issues with transferring etc. -- but that could also just be us being made more aware of it because of social media etc. (where is stats with his transfer rates comparison graphs?)
So this isn't transfer rate comparisons, but Sage requested in passing on the podcast a couple of episodes ago that I take a look at how transfers perform over their college careers compared to kids who "stick it out".

This analysis looks at the difference in mean performance by certain groups over their career. Performance is measured by Win Shares per 40 Minutes Played (WS40). I want to preface this with caution: in my opinion, because in some cases the differences in means are within one standard error, the statistical significance is somewhat debatable. I did look back 5 graduating classes (8 seasons of data), but I think the sample size may still be too small.

I found that WS40 was normally distributed, so I was able to clean the data from outliers using 3σ. I also removed kids who haven't played four seasons (like Baptiste) from the dataset. I considered removing players who transferred more than once but decided against it. In the end, my dataset covered 2,822 players.

Okay, so with that in mind there are some interesting insights.
  • On the whole, players who transfer at some point in their college career will typically perform similarly to players who stay at the same school all four years.
  • If a player falls to one standard error below the average for players in their graduating class, they’re like to transfer at the end of the season.
  • Although a player may still be below average after going to another school, they will typically see a positive return on investment for their effort.
  • The return on investment decays the later a player decides to transfer. Those who transfer after their freshman season will see a larger net gain in the long run than those who transfer after their sophomore season, and so on. While a freshman may transfer after being one standard error below the mean, by their junior year they could be one standard error above the mean. Post-junior transfers will on average not see any positive return on investment. Relatively speaking, their senior season is as disappointing as their junior season.
Image
Last edited by McKinney on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:00 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Class of 2019 - @StatsMass

minutefanjsf
Senior
Posts: 1726
Joined: Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:17 am

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by minutefanjsf » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:23 am

McKinney wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:04 am
Jackson96 wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:37 pm
I do think kids are more aware of their own particular situations and how this is a business and thus have no real issues with transferring etc. -- but that could also just be us being made more aware of it because of social media etc. (where is stats with his transfer rates comparison graphs?)
So this isn't transfer rate comparisons, but Sage requested in passing on the podcast a couple of episodes ago that I take a look at how transfers perform over their college careers compared to kids who "stick it out".

This analysis looks at the difference in mean performance by certain groups over their career. Performance is measured by Win Shares per 40 Minutes Played (WS40). I want to preface this with caution: in my opinion, because in some cases the differences in means are within one standard error, the statistical significance is somewhat debatable. I did look back 5 graduating classes (8 seasons of data), but I think the sample size may still be too small.

I found that WS40 was normally distributed, so I was able to clean the data from outliers using 3σ. I also removed kids who haven't played four seasons (like Baptiste) from the dataset. I considered removing players who transferred more than once but decided against it. In the end, my dataset covered 2,822 players.

Okay, so with that in mind there are some interesting insights.
  • On the whole, players who transfer at some point in their college career will typically perform similarly to players who stay at the same school all four years.
  • If a player falls to one standard error below the average for players in their graduating class, they’re like to transfer at the end of the season.
  • Although a player may still be below average after going to another school, they will typically see a positive return on investment for their effort.
  • The return on investment decays the later a player decides to transfer. Those who transfer after their freshman season will see a larger net gain in the long run than those who transfer after their sophomore season. While a freshman may transfer after being one standard error below the mean, by their junior year they could be one standard error above the mean. Post-junior transfers will on average not see any positive return on investment. Relatively speaking, their senior season is as disappointing as their junior season.
Image
Grad transfers different?

McKinney
Senior
Posts: 1167
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:12 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by McKinney » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:30 am

minutefanjsf wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:23 am
Grad transfers different?
It wasn't clear how to distinguish between GTs and normal transfers. So I'm not sure.
Class of 2019 - @StatsMass

User avatar
MJatUM
Hall of Fame
Posts: 4404
Joined: Wed Mar 12, 2008 9:46 pm
Location: Attleboro

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by MJatUM » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:20 am

I just assumed grad transfers fell into this group :
McKinney wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:04 am
Post-junior transfers will on average not see any positive return on investment. Relatively speaking, their senior season is as disappointing as their junior season.
The majority of grad transfers transfer as rising seniors eligibility-wise.

User avatar
InnervisionsUMASS
Hall of Fame
Posts: 14744
Joined: Fri Apr 04, 2003 1:32 am
Location: Milford, MA
Contact:

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:36 am

I assume grad transfers don't count as a negative in that scoring system they have against the school they are leaving since they graduated, correct?
Stop waiting for UMass to do something big and help UMass do something big. - Shades

capezona
Senior
Posts: 1791
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2014 9:59 pm
Location: Peoria, AZ and Dennisport, MA

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by capezona » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pm

Doesn't a lot depend on where they are transferring? One guy could transfer to Maine and another to Houston. Does that matter? I probably don't understand win shares.

McKinney
Senior
Posts: 1167
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:12 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by McKinney » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:19 pm

^ Here's an article on the Win Shares methodology.
https://www.thescore.com/nba/news/430681
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

Unfortunately, this analysis does not take into account strength of schedule, how good their rest of the team was, or where they transferred to/from.

I think I can add a to/from analysis fairly easily. I might do something like categorizing the transfer by high/low-major (Hi→Hi, Lo→Lo, Hi→Lo, Lo→Hi), or by the change in the quality of team/schedule.

I'd like to have a quality of win adjustment for the win shares, but I haven't quite figured how to do that yet.
Last edited by McKinney on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:05 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Class of 2019 - @StatsMass

NilesGold
Hall of Fame
Posts: 7933
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2012 2:00 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by NilesGold » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:24 pm

^ I think gleaning anything from a statistical analysis of transfers would require you to first slice up the data to a much greater degree and look at subsets of transfers and lots of different data to compare... for instance, compare people who transfer to a higher level, a lower level, people who transfer with coaching changes... and look at mpg, ppg, fg%, etc etc.

McKinney
Senior
Posts: 1167
Joined: Mon Nov 13, 2017 10:12 pm

Re: Game 28, 2018-19: Dayton (2/26)

Post by McKinney » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:57 pm

NilesGold wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:24 pm
and look at mpg, ppg, fg%, etc etc.
Ostensibly Win Shares captures that. Maybe not to granularity we'd like to see here. But having a single metric for individual performance makes data collection easier.
Class of 2019 - @StatsMass

Post Reply