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What are your expectations?

Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:09 pm
by harbo
Just curious. In this totally unscientific effort, I'm curious to see your expectations for the U.S.A's return to a semblance of normality. You know, you can head out to the mall, take in a movie, pick which restaurant you want to head to tonight, live sports are back on TV (or you scored tickets to the game), your wife wants to know when you're gonna finish painting, and the true indicator of America, your kids/grandkids got a soccer game this weekend.

Re: What are your expectations?

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:15 am
by McKinney
I don't see how meeting in large groups is going to be safe until we have a vaccine. And we've been told by health officials that a safe & effective vaccine is ~18 months away at the earliest.

There's also no guarantee that things just spring back to normal if this recovery is anything like the Great Recession.

Re: What are your expectations?

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:55 am
by TheInsider
I would say mid to late April there will be a phased approach to opening things. No large gatherings like sporting events but smaller places will open. That being said, if you are sick or older, stay home for a while. There is no way a mass lockdown can last pass mid April. Hopefully people will learn some good practices going forward to not pass along any viruses. Also does anyone believe this just showed up in the U.S. in March? Its been here for months

Re: What are your expectations?

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:14 am
by Floyd
When those really affected financially get a few weeks/month into deep debt, they'll start going out to find a means to put food on the table.

Re: What are your expectations?

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:26 pm
by e_parade
Hong Kong was on lockdown for 6 weeks before they started loosening the restrictions a bit. Just over a week later, a second wave of infections has begun to come up, and the cases are coming in faster than they were initially:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... -kong-sar/

March 16th: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coron ... 2020-03-16

This morning: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/asia/hon ... index.html


April is not a possibility really, especially since every state has been running at their own pace and there's not going to be anything in place to prevent people from going to neighboring states if restrictions are loosened up.

Re: What are your expectations?

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:22 pm
by TheInsider
The question becomes how long... sooner or later you have to do it. We can't wait until after the last person has it. How many people in the U.S. do you think had it or died from it in dec/jan/feb.

Re: What are your expectations?

Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:02 pm
by e_parade
TheInsider wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:22 pm
The question becomes how long... sooner or later you have to do it. We can't wait until after the last person has it. How many people in the U.S. do you think had it or died from it in dec/jan/feb.
Not very many. With how quickly it's transmitted in groups we would have started to see trends earlier than we did.

The goal also isn't to wait until the last person has it, it's to delay the spread so not everyone needs to be in the hospital at once. Even with lower death rates (0.2% is still high though) the hospitalization rate for people under the age of 50 who get COVID19 is around 15-20%. They've only been able to survive in as high amounts as they have to date because they're still able to get necessary medical treatment.

We also don't need to wait until everyone gets it. The goal is herd immunity, which means that something like 70% of the population has either gained immunity (had it and recovered) or has been vaccinated against it. We won't be in full lock down mode the whole time. But it won't be "normal" (I actually doubt there will be a "normal" as we knew it before when all is said and done) in terms of mass gatherings like sporting events until we've reached that threshold...unless people feel like it's no longer worth it to try and prevent as much death as possible.