The rise of the UMass football program...

Ringing the Bell on a new era of UM Football.
stevemaz
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The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by stevemaz » Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:48 am

..will coincide with the obvious fall of the Patriots. Thanks Bill B, you idiot. Discuss...

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by harbo » Thu Apr 23, 2020 5:21 pm

^ So, using that correlation, does that mean the Patriots will be pretty good the next three or so years? :twisted:

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by eldonabe » Fri Apr 24, 2020 1:04 pm

stevemaz wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:48 am
..will coincide with the obvious fall of the Patriots. Thanks Bill B, you idiot. Discuss...
I thought your name was Steve M not Bill B..... :roll:
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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by harbo » Sat Apr 25, 2020 4:12 pm

stevemaz wrote:
Wed Apr 22, 2020 8:48 am
..will coincide with the obvious fall of the Patriots. Thanks Bill B, you idiot. Discuss...
Okay, corono-boredom has set in, so here are some unsurprising, useless observations. I compared the records of the two teams over fifty years. Comparatively speaking, our record was noticeably better in 18 of those years (remember a nice run in the '70's and much of the '90's?), essentially similar in 11 years, and noticeably below the Patriots in 21 years. Since Belichick showed up in 2000, we had three better seasons, three seasons essentially similar, and 14 seasons below. The past eleven seasons below the Pats (not even close) are obviously a combination of the Pats dominance and our wandering through the big-boy wilderness.

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by McKinney » Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:21 pm

There's an argument that college football will never work because New England/Massachusetts/Boston (however they want to word it) is a "pro-market". So in some sense, there are people who believe there is a negative correlation between the two teams in some way. Maybe not on the field directly, but certainly in the stands and on TV... which impacts the budget, which impacts recruiting and facilities, and eventually on-field.

Now maybe Boston Sports are a special breed, but it's sometimes important to keep things in context.

For the 2020 season (accounting for upcoming NFL changes) the median distance from an FBS school to its nearest NFL franchise is ~90 miles as the crow flies. And if you want to be UMass-centric, there are 52 teams that are closer to their pro-market than UMass is to the Patriots.

You could also approach it from how many FBS schools are in an NFL teams' market? If we reuse that 90-mile radius, the Patriots have to "compete" with three teams: BC, UMass, and UConn. Which is right smack in the median for all NFL franchises: three teams within 90 miles.

There are a lot of factors in aggregate that may work against UMass. But best I can tell, being in a pro-market by itself is not necessarily a bad thing. There are teams that draw well, perform well in spite of it and teams that do not.

It's also important to keep in mind UMass' modest aspirations. They're not trying to win a national championship and sellout a 100k seat stadium. In that case, being outside of a pro-market, being the only game in town... may have its advantage.
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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by harbo » Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:42 pm

Or maybe it is just the product on the field. :(

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... e/2019.pdf

FBS and FCS attendance figures start on page 6. We averaged below 10,000, with only 2 ex-MAC brethren joining us below that line. UConn stunk too, but they nearly doubled our average. 32 teams were under 20,000. I'd be satisfied with 15,000 at this juncture, below what I anticipated where we would be when we moved up.

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:38 am

:lol: :lol:
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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by Steve81 » Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:05 pm

InnervisionsUMASS wrote:
Mon Apr 27, 2020 7:38 am
:lol: :lol:
If you enjoying laughing at our misery, better check the basketball attendance was well.

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by stevemaz » Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:27 am

I feel like if the Pats fall back into the pack or lower the door opens up, at least in Western Mass, for UMass football to gain traction. I personally think that Walt Bell is going to turn this thing around and we will start to see signs of this on the field this upcoming season (I presume that will be next Feb through April). From there, 2021 is the make or break year where 6 wins has to be the goal and then a winning record in 2022. If this coincides with declining interest in the Pats we may very start to see sell outs in 2022 leading to expansion plans being finalized. We all know the stadium needs to be upgraded on many fronts including getting to a respectable seating capacity (around 30-35K). This decade is going to see a lot of changes in college sports and I am glad that the University will be a top 20 Public Institution, which gives us a chance to stay in the mix.

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by Cahoonaville » Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:20 am

harbo wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:42 pm
Or maybe it is just the product on the field. :(

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... e/2019.pdf

FBS and FCS attendance figures start on page 6. We averaged below 10,000, with only 2 ex-MAC brethren joining us below that line. UConn stunk too, but they nearly doubled our average. 32 teams were under 20,000. I'd be satisfied with 15,000 at this juncture, below what I anticipated where we would be when we moved up.
No way winless Akron averaged 17,959 per game last year. That is some big time bullshit math!
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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by eldonabe » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:19 am

Cahoonaville wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:20 am
harbo wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:42 pm
Or maybe it is just the product on the field. :(

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... e/2019.pdf

FBS and FCS attendance figures start on page 6. We averaged below 10,000, with only 2 ex-MAC brethren joining us below that line. UConn stunk too, but they nearly doubled our average. 32 teams were under 20,000. I'd be satisfied with 15,000 at this juncture, below what I anticipated where we would be when we moved up.
No way winless Akron averaged 17,959 per game last year. That is some big time bullshit math!
Unfortunately that sums up what the Northeast thinks of college football.... it also shows the strength of a geographically sensible conference. Even the shitty games have a rivalry component.
In Matt McCall I trust!

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by minutefanjsf » Fri May 01, 2020 1:42 pm

eldonabe wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:19 am
Cahoonaville wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:20 am
harbo wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:42 pm
Or maybe it is just the product on the field. :(

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... e/2019.pdf

FBS and FCS attendance figures start on page 6. We averaged below 10,000, with only 2 ex-MAC brethren joining us below that line. UConn stunk too, but they nearly doubled our average. 32 teams were under 20,000. I'd be satisfied with 15,000 at this juncture, below what I anticipated where we would be when we moved up.
No way winless Akron averaged 17,959 per game last year. That is some big time bullshit math!
Unfortunately that sums up what the Northeast thinks of college football.... it also shows the strength of a geographically sensible conference. Even the shitty games have a rivalry component.
Reported attendance is not actual attendance. We don’t report fake attendance until the ncaa comes calling and then we use donor money to "buy up" blocks of tickets, etc. Akron’s real attendance is near or lower than our attendance. We probably get more people into the start of games, too.

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by Steve81 » Tue May 05, 2020 4:09 am

eldonabe wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:19 am
Cahoonaville wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 7:20 am
harbo wrote:
Sat Apr 25, 2020 11:42 pm
Or maybe it is just the product on the field. :(

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_ ... e/2019.pdf

FBS and FCS attendance figures start on page 6. We averaged below 10,000, with only 2 ex-MAC brethren joining us below that line. UConn stunk too, but they nearly doubled our average. 32 teams were under 20,000. I'd be satisfied with 15,000 at this juncture, below what I anticipated where we would be when we moved up.
No way winless Akron averaged 17,959 per game last year. That is some big time bullshit math!
Unfortunately that sums up what the Northeast thinks of college football.... it also shows the strength of a geographically sensible conference. Even the shitty games have a rivalry component.
There maybe some truth to your post, but you need to put it into context.
Every sport has the died-hard and the fair weather fans.

Football has not had a winning season in over a decade!
Hockey had a huge jump after the NCAA championship run
Basketball saw a huge jump in the 90's, NIT Final-4's, and the 2014 big dance invite.

However, if you like pain, look up basketball attendance for the last few years. Then tell me being in the Northeast or winning is a bigger factor for attendance. (Remember said their was some truth to your post, but my point is a successful program is a way bigger factor.)

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by eldonabe » Tue May 05, 2020 7:22 am

Steve81 wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 4:09 am
There maybe some truth to your post, but you need to put it into context.
Every sport has the died-hard and the fair weather fans.

Football has not had a winning season in over a decade!
Hockey had a huge jump after the NCAA championship run
Basketball saw a huge jump in the 90's, NIT Final-4's, and the 2014 big dance invite.

However, if you like pain, look up basketball attendance for the last few years. Then tell me being in the Northeast or winning is a bigger factor for attendance. (Remember said their was some truth to your post, but my point is a successful program is a way bigger factor.)
This is hard to fully wrap around Steve - Bandwagon fans are not uncommon for every school and for almost every sport. Basketball and Hockey are case in point examples at Umass. I remember seeing Robert Kraft at Hoop games... bandwagons have no prejudice.

The northeast is just not built for college football. BC had a nice solid run for a few years way back when, but that is it. For Umass (or BC for that matter) to be relevant - I mean truly relevant - the investment would have to be solid 9 figures and then a high 8 figure annual and sustained investment for at least a decade just to have a chance at it. BC has been in the ACC for over a decade and they have not made a dent - barely even a scratch.

The school/state is not going to build a $100M stadium, and any investment in the current structure is little more than duct tape and bondo.... It will hold it together, but it will still look and feel like shit. They have to keep pouring money in the current building and that and it is in their plans, but you may as well take that brick of 1 hundred dollar bills and light them on fire. The ROI is deep in the red....


Back to the bandwagon.... As much as I hate Uconn and think they are just as dumb as Umass is for this endeavor, they have a lot more going for them right now than Umass does and the P5 won't even sniff them - they have no football and they do not represent a fertile recruiting area. They were spending 4 to 5 times more than Umass and they still suck almost as much as we do. If they do not catch lightning in a bottle in the first 2 years in the BE for hoops, that program will become Depaul (post Meyer's) - a doormat. Their bandwagon will be full for the start of next year, but if they limp through the first half of the conference schedule you will see 50% or less attendance real fast and that will spiral on them as the better teams feast on them.

Umass is that much more fickle - for football attendance to even get to 10K, they are going to have to win 7 or 8 games on a regular basis - when is that going to happen - especially if they have to play at least 2 payday games (or body bag games) per season......

Don't get me wrong Steve - there is nothing more I would like to see than UMass to be on the map again. I would love to endure the 90-120 minute 8 mile drive back over the Coolidge Bridge every week; but the reality is that the chances of this are less than slim. UConn bet on football and lost - we are betting on football with a significantly smaller investment and expect to succeed?
In Matt McCall I trust!

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Re: The rise of the UMass football program...

Post by Steve81 » Tue May 05, 2020 10:36 am

Thought economist do lots of research.

From your post above.
The northeast is just not built for college football. BC had a nice solid run for a few years way back when, but that is it. For Umass (or BC for that matter) to be relevant - I mean truly relevant - the investment would have to be solid 9 figures and then a high 8 figure annual and sustained investment for at least a decade just to have a chance at it. BC has been in the ACC for over a decade and they have not made a dent - barely even a scratch.
Did you even look at BC numbers. Right in the middle of all FBS teams.
Based on a five year average.

From the below article.
Below are the rankings of all 130 college football programs based on their five-year attendance averages, including how full the stadiums are.
64 Boston College 34,035.80 76.48% 67

127 Massachusetts 12,562.80 73.90% 122


https://collegefootballnews.com/2019/07 ... m-analysis

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