2020-2021 Predictions

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eldonabe
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2020-2021 Predictions

Post by eldonabe » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:01 am

THIS IS NOT the predictons thread I have starred the last few years.... this is about others looking at Umass from the outside!

I used to follow a site called Basketball Forum - good banter and smack talk with fans from other A-10 teams.... I also follow College Sports Madness, authored by Joel Welser. For years he has compiled a projected top #144. It runs from Mid July up to the start of the Hoops season. It is a guess as much as any other preseason prognostication service, but it was always good fodder for the Basketball Forum board.


I have fallen off BF the last few years because we have sucked and it is hard to talk shit when your team blows like Fordham.... I do still check in to CSM however, and I was pleasantly surprised...........

For the first time in many years, Joel has put UMass in his top #144 - he has gone so far as putting them at #72 and projected as 5th place in the A-10. His brief writeup is here:

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/18715

It is nice to see / hear UMass being mentioned in a positive and optimistic light for a change and not just from some local with maroon colored glasses cutting off the circulation to his brain.....


I may have to check BF - I think Steve81 still lurks there once in a while.... We may have to go stir up the board a little bit now!
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by e_parade » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:18 am

He and I are both over at BF, and this came up in a thread over there. Generic teams for the quotes:
Bona Fan wrote:Interesting. Mitchell is a stud, to be sure, but Fake Jared Kushner has a ton to prove as an in-game coach and program leader. The Minutemen certainly can finish this high, though.
Bona Fan 2 wrote:UMass has underachieved since Calipari. The pieces always seem to be there, the results underwhelming. In the interest of a strong A10, FJK needs to figure it out. No reason UMass shouldn't be a top-flight northeast program.

But Christmas was canceled. FJK should just return all his XXS-fit Express for Men purchases. Save that money to purchase players' moms some quality time with the assistants.
Bona Fan 3 wrote:I cant see how UMass should be above Duquesne. We all know Duquesne is solid and is returning their whole team back (once the roster gets cut) and UMass is still pretty unknown. 72 is pretty high. I certainly think UMass will finish top 100 and in a best case they could get to the 70's but I need to see it first
Fordham Fan wrote:If you see it first, it is not a prediction. :P
Duequesne Fan wrote:UMass' high rating is all about Tre. I think they think he can be a lesser version of Obi. That's likely what it will take for them to take this big of a step this year.

Then there was some back and forth about the team underachieving and whatnot. The Bona fans like to call McCall "Fake Jared Kushner" or FJK, if you didn't gather.

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:29 am

Huh... never once thought McCall looked like Kushner.

Other than that, those comments seem pretty spot on.
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by eldonabe » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:14 am

e_parade wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:18 am He and I are both over at BF, and this came up in a thread over there. Generic teams for the quotes:
Bona Fan wrote:Interesting. Mitchell is a stud, to be sure, but Fake Jared Kushner has a ton to prove as an in-game coach and program leader. The Minutemen certainly can finish this high, though.
Bona Fan 2 wrote:UMass has underachieved since Calipari. The pieces always seem to be there, the results underwhelming. In the interest of a strong A10, FJK needs to figure it out. No reason UMass shouldn't be a top-flight northeast program.

But Christmas was canceled. FJK should just return all his XXS-fit Express for Men purchases. Save that money to purchase players' moms some quality time with the assistants.
Bona Fan 3 wrote:I cant see how UMass should be above Duquesne. We all know Duquesne is solid and is returning their whole team back (once the roster gets cut) and UMass is still pretty unknown. 72 is pretty high. I certainly think UMass will finish top 100 and in a best case they could get to the 70's but I need to see it first
Fordham Fan wrote:If you see it first, it is not a prediction. :P
Duequesne Fan wrote:UMass' high rating is all about Tre. I think they think he can be a lesser version of Obi. That's likely what it will take for them to take this big of a step this year.

Then there was some back and forth about the team underachieving and whatnot. The Bona fans like to call McCall "Fake Jared Kushner" or FJK, if you didn't gather.
The BF has devolved into a Bonaventure Bitch Board for the most part. There is a rep or two hanging in from most of the teams, but it is mostly the Bonnies From Siberia there now - the clearly cannot afford their own team board :lol: .
In Matt McCall I trust!

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by 69MG » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:24 am

If anyone is interested, here are the A10 teams listed so far in the top 144:

URI - 138 9th in the A10 (Before the waivers were granted)
VCU - 116 8th in the A10 (you can figure out the rest of the A10 rankings)
Davidson - 100
Duquesne - 80
UMass - 72
Dayton- 65

So there are 4 A10 teams better than 65.

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by e_parade » Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:42 am

eldonabe wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:14 am
e_parade wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 8:18 am He and I are both over at BF, and this came up in a thread over there. Generic teams for the quotes:
Bona Fan wrote:Interesting. Mitchell is a stud, to be sure, but Fake Jared Kushner has a ton to prove as an in-game coach and program leader. The Minutemen certainly can finish this high, though.
Bona Fan 2 wrote:UMass has underachieved since Calipari. The pieces always seem to be there, the results underwhelming. In the interest of a strong A10, FJK needs to figure it out. No reason UMass shouldn't be a top-flight northeast program.

But Christmas was canceled. FJK should just return all his XXS-fit Express for Men purchases. Save that money to purchase players' moms some quality time with the assistants.
Bona Fan 3 wrote:I cant see how UMass should be above Duquesne. We all know Duquesne is solid and is returning their whole team back (once the roster gets cut) and UMass is still pretty unknown. 72 is pretty high. I certainly think UMass will finish top 100 and in a best case they could get to the 70's but I need to see it first
Fordham Fan wrote:If you see it first, it is not a prediction. :P
Duequesne Fan wrote:UMass' high rating is all about Tre. I think they think he can be a lesser version of Obi. That's likely what it will take for them to take this big of a step this year.

Then there was some back and forth about the team underachieving and whatnot. The Bona fans like to call McCall "Fake Jared Kushner" or FJK, if you didn't gather.
The BF has devolved into a Bonaventure Bitch Board for the most part. There is a rep or two hanging in from most of the teams, but it is mostly the Bonnies From Siberia there now - the clearly cannot afford their own team board :lol: .
This is an incredibly accurate description lol

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by Juice Stand » Wed Sep 09, 2020 12:41 pm

A #72 preseason prediction is nice to see and I'd be pleased finishing somewhere around there. The writer didn't go overboard and expect a Sweet 16 run or anything like that, he only has us in the NIT, which I think should be the expectation this year. Tre will be great, Carl will be very good, and TJ should return to form. If we can get positive contributions from Dibaji, Preston, Kolton, and the new guys (especially Noah Fernandes), we should be in good shape.

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by Sheck » Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:37 pm

I predict UMass will make the tournament.
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by uz2b-len » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:08 am

I think this season's outcome depends on whether Fernandes is eligible. Without him, I think we're in bad shape at PG.
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Thu Sep 10, 2020 7:30 am

Sheck wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 9:37 pm I predict UMass will make the tournament.

:lol: :lol:
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by uz2b-len » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:28 am

Notice he didn't say which tournament
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by capezona » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:31 am

The Covid tournament

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by InnervisionsUMASS » Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:47 am

uz2b-len wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:28 am Notice he didn't say which tournament

lol he did... that's a link (not just underlined text) to the supposed ACC proposal that all D1 teams make the NCAA tournament.
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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by capezona » Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:10 am

Just for fun (and to blow off another hour of doing nothing of value), I looked back over the last six years to see how the CSM-144 panned out for us.

In 2014-15 we were ranked #71 (College Sports Madness 144 preseason poll) and went 17-15 overall for the season. We had 25 games against CSM-144 ranked teams and were 11-14 against them. We were 3-8 against higher ranked teams and 8-6 against lower ranked teams.

In 2015-16 we were unranked and went 14-18. We had 17 ranked teams on our schedule and went 7-10 against them. (Side note: St Joe's was unranked and finished the season 28-8, while LaSalle was ranked 109 and finished 9-22)

In 2016-17 we were unranked and went 15-18. We had 15 games against CSM ranked teams and went 4-11 against them.

In 2017-18 we were unranked and went 13-20 overall. We had 22 games against ranked teams and went 7-15.

In 2018-19 we were ranked #88 in preseason and went 11-21 overall. We had 16 games against ranked teams and were 5-6 against teams ranked higher than us and 0-5 against teams ranked lower (uh oh) for a total of 5-12 against CSM-144 teams. (Dayton was unranked and finished 21-12)

In 2019-20 we were unranked and went 14-17 overall. We had 16 games against ranked teams (17th game was cancelled) going 3-13. (Richmond was unranked and finished 24-7, same as Akron)

Not sure what all this proves except that I lead a very boring life and that predicting teams rankings is a crapshoot. But it's still fun and gets me through the summer in a pandemic.

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Re: 2020-2021 Predictions

Post by capezona » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:05 pm

69MG wrote: Wed Sep 09, 2020 10:24 am If anyone is interested, here are the A10 teams listed so far in the top 144:

URI - 138 9th in the A10 (Before the waivers were granted)
VCU - 116 8th in the A10 (you can figure out the rest of the A10 rankings)
Davidson - 100
Duquesne - 80
UMass - 72
Dayton- 65

So there are 4 A10 teams better than 65.
Update for the Top 144: St. Bon comes in at 60. The list goes up to #32 today so I'd say that St. Louis and Richmond are the only A10 schools left to rank. I'm surprised that Dayton is rated so low. This puts us at #5 in the conference.

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